Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: College Football Free Betting Pick

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It’ll be a SEC-Big 10 showdown as the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) are favorites against the No. 17 Michigan Wolverines in the VRBO Citrus Bowl. The afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and ABC will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is the underdog in this matchup and is currently getting 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to put up $300 to win $100 back on the Tide (-300). The Wolverines are getting +220 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 58 points, and if one school can create a bunch of points early, it’ll probably create a nice in-game betting opportunity.

The game’s total has swung up after opening at 57. The original line (-7) has not budged.

The Wolverines are 7-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 8-4.

The Crimson Tide have lost 1.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-5.

The Wolverines have gone 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Crimson Tide are 10-2 SU.

The Wolverines dropped one to Ohio State 56-27 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Buckeyes to pass for 313 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 264 yards and four scores. Offensively, Shea Patterson completed just 18-of-43 passes for 305 yards, along with one score and a pick. Hassan Haskins (78 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Ronnie Bell (six receptions, 78 yards) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (three catches, 69 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Back in Week 14, Auburn took care of this Alabama team by a score of 48-45. Mac Jones completed 26-of-39 passes for 335 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Najee Harris (146 rushing yards on 27 attempts, one TD) handled the running attack as Henry Ruggs III (six receptions, 99 yards, one TD) and Devonta Smith (five catches, 80 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Michigan has run the ball on 54.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Alabama has a rush percentage of 51.6 percent. The Wolverines have run for 149.8 yards/game and have 26 scores on the ground this year. The Tide are totaling 169.8 rush yards per game and have 25 total rushing TDs.

The Wolverines offensive scheme has averaged 252.3 yards in the air overall and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Tide have put up a superb 343.5 pass yards per contest and have 46 total pass scores.

Defensively, Michigan has allowed 119.1 rush yards and 173.8 pass yards per game. The Alabama D has given up 183.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 135.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.05 to opposing QBs, while the Wolverines have given up a 4.78 ANY/A.

Offensively, Patterson has put up 2,462 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 57 percent of his 312 attempts with 17 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Patterson has a 7.26 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.46 over the last two outings.

As a group, Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Hassan Haskins have combined to account for 473 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns over the last two outings.

Mac Jones has completed 71-of-104 passes for 901 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for Alabama. His ANY/A sits at 8.57 for the season and 12.54 over his last two outings.

As a trio, Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith have combined to account for 623 total yards and nine touchdowns over the last couple of games.

Michigan Wolverines at Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick

SU Winner: Alabama, ATS Winner: Alabama, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Wolverines offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have accounted for 17 such plays.
  • The Michigan defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Alabama has given up one such play.
  • Both defenses have produced 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Michigan offense has recorded 55 running plays of 10+ yards while Alabama has accounted for 62 such plays.
  • The Wolverines defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have given up 17 such runs.
  • The Michigan defense has sacked opposing QBs 35 times this season. Alabama has recorded just 28 sacks.
  • Michigan, as a team, has averaged 2.9 yards per rush attempt across its past three contests and 3.2 over its last two.
  • Alabama has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.1 over its past two.