In a matchup between a couple of squads ranked in the Top 25 nationally, the No. 4 Buckeyes of Ohio State (-21) are set to welcome their in-conference nemesis Michigan State Spartans to Ohio Stadium. The matchup will start at 7:30 p.m. ET and ABC will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 21 points to Michigan State. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points. It appears that this showdown should have some live betting opportunities.
With the line opening at -20 and the over/under initially placed at 49, bookmakers have moved the odds a little.
The less-than-stellar Spartans are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 6.5 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2.
The Buckeyes have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors so far, gaining 3.0 units. The team is 4-1 ATS and also has an O/U record of 3-2.
The perfect Spartans have gone 4-1 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU overall and are also 2-0 SU in conference play.
The Spartans are coming off a 40-31 victory over Indiana last week where their secondary allowed the Hoosiers to throw for 286 yards and three touchdowns. Whop Philyor had a good day for the Hoosiers in that one with 142 yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches. On the offensive side, Brian Lewerke completed just 18-of-36 passes for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Elijah Collins (56 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Lewerke (78 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack in the win. Darrell Stewart Jr. (five receptions, 117 yards, two TDs) and Cody White (four catches, 67 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Ohio State just put together a 48-7 win over Nebraska. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Cornhuskers to rush for 184 yards on 39 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Adrian Martinez had a productive showing in the loss, posting 81 rushing yards on 15 attempts for Nebraska. For Ohio State, Justin Fields completed 15-of-21 passes for 212 yards and three touchdowns. J.K. Dobbins (177 yards on 24 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Fields (72 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the ground game in the win as K.J. Hill (five receptions, 39 yards, one TD) and Austin Mack (three catches, 66 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
Michigan State has run the ball on 50.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ohio State has a rush percentage of 63.3 percent. The Spartans have produced 144.6 rush yards per game (including 125.5 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Buckeyes are putting up 281.6 rush yards per game (337 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
The Spartans offensive scheme has averaged 269 yards through the air overall (264 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Buckeyes have put up 254 pass yards per contest (213 in the Big 10) and have 19 total pass scores.
Michigan State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 55.8 yards and throw for 198 yards per game. The Ohio State defense has allowed 138.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 85.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Buckeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.69 to opposing QBs, while the Spartans have given up a 3.97 ANY/A.
Fields has been more effective than Lewerke recently. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 10.52 for the season and 11.64 over his past two games while Lewerke’s ANY/A is 8.14 and 9.28 over the past two outings.
These two programs faced off last year with the final result being a 26-6 victory for Ohio State.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Ohio State, ATS Winner: Michigan State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Michigan State’s last game was set at 44. The over cashed in the team’s 40-31 victory over Indiana.
- As a team, Michigan State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.4 over its last two.
- Ohio State has averaged 6.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.3 over its last two.
- The Ohio State offense has lost four fumbles this season while Michigan State has lost three.
- Over its last three contests, Michigan State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Ohio State’s last outing going into it was 65.5. The under cashed in that 48-7 triumph over Nebraska.
- In its last three games, Ohio State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Spartans offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have put up two such plays.
- Both teams have allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more and three pass plays of 30+ yards.
- The Michigan State offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Ohio State has created 13 such runs.
- The Spartans defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have given up four such runs.
- The Ohio State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this season. Michigan State has recorded just 16 sacks.
