Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Free Preview

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Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins are heading west to take on the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. Fox Sports San Diego will be televising this NL matchup and the action gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres Odds

San Diego (-155) is the favorite against Miami (+145) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at seven runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-150) and Padres -1.5 (+130) for this matchup.

The Padres are 29-27 straight up (SU) and 25-31 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 1.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 11.2 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Marlins have gone 19-35 SU this year and are 24-29 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 4.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 11.4 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

San Diego games have had an over/under record of 25-28-3 so far in 2019. Miami has been a decent under bet with a total record of 23-29-1.

Caleb Smith will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The southpaw Smith is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 72 strikeouts. This is his first start against San Diego this year. He did make two starts against the team in 2018, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.73 ERA and nine strikeouts.

The Padres are turning to lefty Joey Lucchesi (3-3, 4.25 ERA), who has 57 punchouts and 14 walks as well as a 1.18 WHIP. Lucchesi did not record a start against the Marlins in 2018.

Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.86 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.27, along with a WHIP of 1.25.

Marlins hitters have slashed .231/.295/.336 on their way to 3.1 runs scored per game this season, including 5.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced Miami’s hitters. Castro is slashing .233/.271/.300 with three home runs, 16 RBIs and 15 runs scored. Anderson (.231/.314/.352) is up to five homers, 21 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, San Diego’s pitching staff has given up 4.3 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 10.5 K/9.

The San Diego offense is putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .281/.357/.478 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Padres’ hitters have been led by first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado. Hosmer is slashing .297/.345/.467 with nine home runs, 33 RBIs and 30 runs scored, and Machado’s line sits at .264/.351/.433 with nine homers, 27 RBIs and 27 runs.

The Marlins have lost 0.1 units and are 8-6 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in seven of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 2.1 units and are 6-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to six that’ve cashed the under.

Marlins at Padres Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in four of Miami’s last seven games.
  • San Diego has recorded 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 25.4 over its last five.
  • The Marlins have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 15 over their last 10.
  • The Marlins have a total OPS of .631 this season and an OPS of .607 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS stands at .709 overall and .716 against southpaws.