A six-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the San Antonio Spurs (16-8) when they go head-to-head against the Miami Heat (11-12) at AT&T Center. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 197.5 points with San Antonio opening as a 7.5-point favorite. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 6, 2017, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The Heat got blown out by the Golden State Warriors in their last contest, 123-95. Miami’s Kelly Olynyk recorded 14 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the contest. Golden State’s 23.3 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Miami, who had a mark of 12.8. The Warriors mark was above their season average of 22.2, while the Heat’s was below their season average of 18.9.
In the Spurs last game, they beat the Detroit Pistons, 96-93. With 17 points on 5-for-17 shooting, LaMarcus Aldridge led San Antonio in scoring. The Spurs held the Pistons to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.6 (below their season average of 23.7) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.459 (below their season average of 0.526).
San Antonio appears to have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Spurs currently rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503), while Miami is 15th in effective field goal percentage (0.516). Additionally, the Heat rank 27th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), while the Spurs rank third in opponents FTA rate (0.163).
Both of these teams have a tendency to finish under the O/U total. Miami games have gone under 56.5 percent of the time, while games including San Antonio have gone under 62.5 percent of the time. The Spurs hold a sizable advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 16-8 SU and 12-10-2 ATS, while the Heat are 11-12 SU and 8-13-2 ATS.
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to score 217 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 196.5. The Spurs won 117-100, covering as 3-point favorites. The Spurs played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.2 and a solid free throw rate of 0.303. For those same stats, the Heat recorded marks of 10.0 and 0.212, respectively. Aldridge scored a game-high 31 points.
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Odds Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Spurs rank 10th in assists per game (23.0) while the Heat rank 25th (20.8).
- San Antonio ranks 20th in fast break points per game (9.2) while Miami ranks 27th (7.5).
- San Antonio ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while Miami ranks 26th (8.7).
- San Antonio ranks 19th in points off turnovers per game (16.4) while Miami ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.3).
- Miami is 6-6 ATS on the road, while San Antonio is 8-4-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 7 of the Spurs 13 home games, while 8 of the Heat’s 12 road games have gone under.
- San Antonio is 11-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 7-3.
- The Spurs are 11-0 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 8-4.
- The Spurs rank second in blocks per game (6.2) while the Heat rank 13th (4.9).
- San Antonio ranks sixth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).
- The Heat rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.6) while the Spurs rank 24th (25.0).
- The Heat rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (41.1) while the Spurs rank 25th (40.8).
- San Antonio ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Miami ranks 22nd (44.3).
Bettings Trends:
- San Antonio is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 push.
- The Spurs average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 3.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 96.6 points per game (3.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.8 points per game (4.1 above their season average).
