Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Free Prediction

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The Miami Heat (36-32) head to Golden 1 Center to clash with the Sacramento Kings (21-47). The Heat can end an eight-game road losing streak. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 14, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.

Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings ATS Odds

Both teams were beaten in their last matchup. The Kings fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 106-101, while the Heat were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-99.

Miami had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 11.1) while Sacramento held Oklahoma City to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.2 (below their season average of 28.0). Sacramento’s Bogdan Bogdanovic led the way, finishing with 19 points and eight rebounds. Miami, meanwhile, was led by Justise Winslow, who contributed 15 points and 13 rebounds.

Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Sacramento currently ranks 26th in possessions per game (97.3) and Miami is 25th (97.4).

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Heat games, with 35 unders compared to 31 overs. Miami comes into the game with records of 36-32 straight up (SU) and 35-30-3 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, just over half of Kings games have finished over the projected point total. Moreover, Sacramento is 21-47 SU and 31-34-3 ATS.

The Heat’s Winslow has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 11.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Kosta Koufos has averaged 11.6 points and 9.6 rebounds during that same time frame for the Kings.

In their first matchup this year, Buddy Hield led the Kings to an 89-88 win. He was the game’s leading scorer with 24 points. The two teams combined for 177 points, which was well under the projected point total of 200.5, and Sacramento covered as a 10-point underdog. Sacramento’s 0.500 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Miami, who had a mark of 0.451.

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 17th in steals per game (7.5) while the Kings rank 19th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
  • Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.0) while Sacramento ranks last (31.9).
  • The Heat rank 19th in rebounds per game (43.1) while the Kings rank 28th (40.6).
  • Sacramento ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.5) while Miami ranks 10th (43.1).
  • Sacramento ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (10.1) while Miami ranks 27th (8.2).
  • The Heat rank seventh in blocks per game (5.2) while the Kings rank 26th (4.1).
  • The Kings rank 20th in second chance points per game (11.6) while the Heat rank 25th (10.7).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.6) while Sacramento ranks 22nd (24.3).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Sacramento is 13-5 and Miami is 21-6.
  • The Kings are 15-20 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 26-15.
  • Miami is 22-12-1 ATS on the road, while Sacramento is 15-18 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 18 of the Heat’s 35 road games, while 18 of the Kings’ 33 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Kings are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 4 overs and 1 under, while Sacramento has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (12.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.2 points per game (4.9 above their season average).
  • The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.0, down from 7.9 for the season.