An eight-game home winning streak is on the line for the Portland Trail Blazers (32-20), who will be 7.5-point favorites when they welcome the Miami Heat (24-27) to Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points and it begins at 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 5, 2019.
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Odds
The Trail Blazers easily got past the Utah Jazz in their last matchup, 132-105, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The Heat, on the other hand, were topped by the Indiana Pacers, 95-88, and failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Portland game finished 18.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5, while the Miami game finished 21.5 points under the projected point total of 204.5.
Portland played a perfect game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 28.2 (above their season average of 25.5) and a turnover percentage of 11.5 (better than their season average of 12.1). Utah was 18.6 and 14.5, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, meanwhile, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (19-26; 73.1 percent). Damian Lillard had a good outing for Portland, putting up 36 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds. Hassan Whiteside played a pivotal role for Miami with 19 points and 14 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Goran Dragic led the Heat to a 120-111 win. He recorded 28 points and five assists. The two teams combined for 231 points, which was over the projected point total of 220, and Miami covered as a 2-point favorite. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.0 vs. 16.7). Portland, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (25-28; 89.3 percent).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Heat games, with 25 overs compared to 25 unders. Miami holds records of 24-27 straight up (SU) and 25-25-1 against the spread (ATS).
There does not appear to be a trend for Trail Blazers games in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Further, Portland is 32-20 SU and 29-23 ATS.
The aggressive Portland offense seems poised to dominate from the charity stripe. The Trail Blazers currently rank ninth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.208, while Miami is among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 19th-ranked FTA rate of 0.203).
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (22.5) while the Trail Blazers rank seventh (23.2).
- Portland ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while Miami ranks 26th (17.9).
- The Trail Blazers rank second in rebounds per game (48.2) while the Heat rank 12th in rebounds allowed per game (44.2).
- Miami ranks 18th in steals per game (7.4) while Portland ranks 26th (6.6).
- Portland ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.0) while Miami ranks 28th (9.6).
- The Trail Blazers rank third in second chance points per game (14.9) while the Heat rank 20th in second chance points allowed per game (14.0).
- The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.2) while the Trail Blazers rank ninth (47.2).
- Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.6) while Portland ranks 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
- Portland is 8-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 15-3.
- In games where they score above 100 points, the Heat are 22-14 and the Trail Blazers are 31-15.
- Miami is 15-9 ATS on the road, while Portland is 19-10 ATS at home.
- The Heat have 12 unders, 11 overs and 1 push in 24 road games.
- The Trail Blazers have 15 unders and 14 overs in 29 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Portland has 4 overs and 1 under, while Miami has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.2, up from 3.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 97.0 points per game (7.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.8 points per game (3.7 below their season average).
