Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction 01/17/20

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The Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18) will be at home in Chesapeake Energy Arena when they take on the Miami Heat (28-12). The game can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 17, 2020.

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Odds

In the Heat’s last game, they were victorious over the San Antonio Spurs, 106-100, covering as 5-point favorites. The Thunder, on the other hand, were beaten by the Toronto Raptors, 130-121, and failed to cover as 1-point underdogs. The Miami game went 13.5 points under the projected point total of 219.5, while the Oklahoma City game finished 38 points over the projected point total of 213.

The Heat held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8 (below their season average of 21.0) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.563 (above their season average of 0.547). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (19-20; 95.0 percent). Oklahoma City’s Chris Paul had a solid performance, putting up 16 points, 11 assists and five rebounds. Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo played a key role for Miami with 14 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists.

This series was highly competitive last year, as the teams split their two games last season. The Heat won the most recent game 116-107. Miami had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 16.1). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of making free throws (21-27; 77.8 percent). This will be the first game of the year between these two teams.

Heat games have a tendency to go over the projected point total (60.0 percent). Miami heads into the game with records of 28-12 straight up (SU) and 22-16-2 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Miami, games involving the Thunder tend to finish under the projected point total (56.1 percent). Moreover, Oklahoma City owns records of 23-18 SU and 26-14-1 ATS.

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams battle. Oklahoma City currently ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.9) and Miami is 22nd (101.1). Also, the Heat, who rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.234), will go head-to-head against the Thunder, who rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.163).

Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank 18th in steals per game (7.5) while the Heat rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while Miami ranks 28th (36.9).
  • The Thunder rank 17th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Heat rank 27th (4.2).
  • Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 10th (44.7).
  • Miami ranks 25th in second chance points per game (11.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 28th (11.1).
  • The Thunder rank ninth in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while the Heat rank 26th (18.8).
  • The Heat rank 24th in fast break points per game (10.9) while the Thunder rank 29th (9.4).
  • Miami ranks 11th in assists per game (25.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 26th (21.7).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, Oklahoma City is 7-3 and Miami is 5-1.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Thunder are 22-11 and the Heat are 27-7.
  • Oklahoma City is 11-9-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 9-11-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 11 of the Thunder’s 21 home games, while 12 of the Heat’s 21 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Oklahoma City are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Heat have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Thunder have 3 overs and 2 unders
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 3.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 114.4 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (2.9 above their season average).