Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks ATS Prediction 01/12/20

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The New York Knicks (10-29) and the Miami Heat (27-11) clash at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks will try to snap their five-game losing streak. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 12, 2020.

Miami Heat at New York Knicks Betting Odds

Both teams were beaten in their last matchup. The Heat (4-point favorites) were defeated by the Brooklyn Nets, 117-113, while the Knicks (4.5-point underdogs) fell to the New Orleans Pelicans, 123-111. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 12 points over the projected point total of 218, while the New York game went 7.5 points over the projected point total of 226.5.

Miami did a terrific job of converting from the free throw line (18-21; 85.7 percent) while New York held New Orleans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.8 (below their season average of 23.1). Elfrid Payton fueled New York with 15 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Miami was lifted by Jimmy Butler, who contributed 33 points and nine rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Bam Adebayo led the Heat to a 129-114 victory. He recorded 20 points and eight rebounds. Miami covered as a 9-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 243 points, which was well over the projected point total of 216.5. One of Miami’s largest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They had 34 free throw attempts, while New York had 33.

Vegas is known to set the total low when the Heat are playing, as 23 of their 38 games have ended over the projected point total. Miami holds records of 27-11 straight up (SU) and 21-15-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, Knicks games tend to go under the projected point total (56.4 percent). Further, New York owns records of 10-29 SU and 18-20-1 ATS.

The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Knicks currently rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (25.1 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent). Furthermore, the Heat rank fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.545), whereas the bottom-tier defense of the Knicks ranks 27th with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.545.

Heat vs. Knicks ATS Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Knicks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while the Heat rank eighth (45.4).
  • New York ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 27th (11.8).
  • The Knicks rank fifth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Heat rank 19th (7.9).
  • Miami ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while New York ranks 17th (5.0).
  • Miami ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while New York ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (35.4).
  • The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Knicks rank 21st (46.3).
  • The Knicks rank 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2) while the Heat rank 27th (18.9).
  • Miami ranks 24th in fast break points per game (11.2) while New York ranks 27th (10.4).
  • Miami ranks 10th in assists per game (25.2) while New York ranks 29th (21.0).
  • When allowing less than 100 points, New York is 3-1 and Miami is 5-1.
  • The Heat are 26-6 when they reach 100 points, while the Knicks are 9-19.
  • Miami is 9-10-1 ATS on the road, while New York is 7-10-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 12 of the Knicks’ 18 home games, while 11 of the Heat’s 20 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Knicks are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders, while New York has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 3.9 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Knicks have scored an average of 109.2 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 124.6 points per game (12.0 above their season average).