Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction 12/16/19

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The Miami Heat (19-7) will travel to FedExForum to clash against the Memphis Grizzlies (9-17). The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 16, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Grizzlies (1.5-point favorites) defeated the Washington Wizards 128-111, while the Heat (8.5-point underdog) beat the Dallas Mavericks 122-118. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Memphis game went 2 points over the projected point total of 237, while the Miami game finished 24.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5.

The Heat knocked down 28 of their 34 free throws (82.4 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 7.0 (better than their season average of 14.5). The Grizzlies, on the other hand, had a ridiculous effective field goal percentage of 0.637 (above their season average of 0.514) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.1 (above their season average of 20.9). Dillon Brooks led the way for Memphis, putting up 27 points. Bam Adebayo, meanwhile led the way for Miami with 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists to register his first triple-double this year.

In their first matchup this year, Justise Winslow led the Heat to a 120-101 victory. He was the game’s top overall scorer with 27 points. The two teams combined to put up 221 points, which was over the projected point total of 214, and Miami covered as a 7-point favorite. Miami was successful at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Heat made 33 of their 39 free throws (84.6 percent), while the Grizzlies were just 20-30 (66.7 percent).

Of the Heat’s 26 games, 14 have finished over the total. Miami heads into the game with records of 19-7 straight up (SU) and 16-8-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, games including the Grizzlies have gone under the projected point total 53.8 percent of the time. Additionally, Memphis is 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS.

The Heat’s Jimmy Butler has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 26 points,8.8 rebounds,7.0 assists,1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jaren Jackson Jr. has averaged 25 points,1.6 blocks during that same time frame for the Grizzlies.

It could be a tough game for Memphis on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.1 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.9 percent). Also, the Heat rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.239), while the Grizzlies rank 27th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.231).

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 33.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 16th in the league. The Grizzlies rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (35.0).
  • Miami ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Memphis ranks 25th (5.8).
  • The Grizzlies rank third in points in the paint per game (53.2) while the Heat rank 20th (46.4).
  • Memphis averages 26.5 assists per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Miami ranks 18th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
  • Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.4) while Memphis ranks 15th (45.6).
  • The Grizzlies rank fourth in fast break points per game (16.3) while the Heat rank 25th (11.3).
  • The Grizzlies average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Heat rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.1).
  • Miami ranks 22nd in second chance points per game (12.3) while Memphis ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (14.0).
  • Miami ranks 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.9) while Memphis ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.5).
  • Miami is 4-1 when they allow under 100 points.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Heat are 19-3 and the Grizzlies are 9-12.
  • Miami is 7-6-1 ATS on the road, while Memphis is 6-9 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 7 of the Heat’s 14 road games, while 8 of the Grizzlies’ 15 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Memphis are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Heat have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Grizzlies have 3 overs and 2 unders
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 117.8 points per game (5.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average).
  • The Grizzlies have outscored opponents by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. On the season, Memphis has been defeated by an average of 6.3 points.