Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction 01/08/20

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The Miami Heat (26-10) will travel to Bankers Life Fieldhouse to go head-to-head with the Indiana Pacers (23-14). Action begins at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020, and can be seen on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana.

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ATS Odds

Both teams covered as favorites in their last game. The Pacers (6.5-point favorites) defeated the Charlotte Hornets 115-104, while the Heat (5-point favorites) beat the Portland Trail Blazers 122-111. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Indiana game went 9.5 points over the projected point total of 209.5, while the Miami game went 17.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5.

Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 (above their season average of 22.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.622 (above their season average of 0.539). Portland put up marks of 18.2 and 0.534, respectively, for those same stats. Indiana, meanwhile, played a nearly perfect game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6 (above their season average of 21.2) and a turnover percentage of 9.5 (better than their season average of 11.3). For those same stats, Charlotte put up marks of 20.5 and 10.8, respectively. T.J. Warren had a good game for Indiana, recording 36 points and five rebounds. Miami was lifted by Goran Dragic, who put up 29 points and 13 assists.

In their first matchup this season, Bam Adebayo led the Heat to a 113-112 victory. He recorded a double-double with 18 points and 15 rebounds. The two teams combined for 225 points, which was over the projected point total of 210.5, and Miami was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.4 vs. 4.5). Indiana, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (4.0 vs. 11.8).

Oddsmakers tend to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 58.3 percent of their games have ended over the projected point total. Miami comes into the game with records of 26-10 straight up (SU) and 20-14-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Miami, Pacers games have gone under the projected point total 51.4 percent of the time. Additionally, Indiana is 23-14 SU and 19-16-2 ATS.

Second-chance opportunities could be hard to come by for Indiana in this meeting. The Pacers rank 25th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.4 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.6 percent).

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Odds Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers rank 23rd in second chance points per game (12.4) while the Heat rank 27th (11.9).
  • Indiana ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Miami ranks 21st (8.1).
  • The Pacers rank 11th in blocks per game (5.1) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
  • Indiana ranks 14th in fast break points per game (12.8) while Miami ranks 25th (11.1).
  • Indiana averages 25.8 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Miami ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (24.0).
  • The Pacers rank eighth in three pointers allowed per game (32.3) while the Heat rank 28th (37.3).
  • The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while the Pacers rank 11th (45.1).
  • Indiana ranks seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.3) while Miami ranks 26th (19.1).
  • Miami is 5-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Indiana is 6-1.
  • In games where they score over 100 points, the Heat are 25-5 and the Pacers are 23-8.
  • Indiana is 10-7-2 ATS at home, while Miami is 8-9-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 9 of the Heat’s 18 road games, while 10 of the Pacers’ 19 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Indiana are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Heat have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Pacers have 4 overs and 1 under
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 3.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.8 points.
  • During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 111.0 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (6.0 above their season average).