The Miami Heat (27-33), 9-point underdogs, will travel to the Toyota Center to clash with the Houston Rockets (36-25). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218.5 points and it can be seen on ATTSN Southwest at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 28, 2019.
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets Betting Odds
In the Rockets’ last game, they defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 118-113, despite being 12.5-point underdogs. The Heat, on the other hand, topped the Golden State Warriors, 126-125, but were unable to cover as 7.5-point favorites. The Houston game went 3.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5, while the Miami game went 34 points over the projected point total of 217.
Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 25.4) and a free throw rate of 0.289 (above their season average of 0.173). Golden State was 18.2 and 0.225, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Houston’s 9.0 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Charlotte, who had a mark of 15.9. The Rockets’ mark was better than their season average of 11.7, while the Hornets’ was above their season average of 10.6. Houston was lifted by Clint Capela, who finished with 23 points and 17 rebounds. Dwyane Wade had a good game for Miami, finishing with 25 points and seven rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Josh Richardson led the Heat to a 101-99 win. He recorded 22 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Miami covered as a 3-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 200 points, which was under the projected point total of 210. Miami out-rebounded Houston. The Heat had 20 offensive rebounds and 61 total rebounds, while the Rockets had eight and 41, respectively.
Games including the Heat have gone over the projected point total 50.8 percent of the time. Miami heads into the contest with records of 27-33 straight up (SU) and 29-29-1 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Miami, just over half of Rockets games have finished over the O/U total. Further, Houston is 36-25 SU and 27-32-1 ATS.
The Heat’s Wade has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 15 points,3.8 assists,1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Chris Paul has averaged 20 points,10.6 assists,5.6 rebounds,1.4 steals during that same time frame for the Rockets.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Houston ranks 23rd in possessions per game (100.8) and Miami is 24th (100.6). Additionally, the Heat rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.4 percent), while the Rockets rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.4 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets Odds Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Rockets rank 20th in fast break points per game (11.6) while the Heat rank 27th (9.8).
- Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (43.0) while Houston ranks 29th (52.7).
- The Heat rank fifth in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Rockets rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.8) while Miami ranks 13th (32.8).
- Houston averages 8.5 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Miami ranks 15th in steals allowed per game (7.7).
- The Rockets rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (18.0) while the Heat rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.2).
- The Heat rank 19th in assists per game (23.8) while the Rockets rank 29th (20.9).
- Miami ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.6) while Houston ranks 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
- Miami ranks eighth in rebounds per game (46.3) while Houston ranks 26th (41.6).
- Houston is 9-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 15-3.
- The Heat are 25-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Rockets are 34-17.
- Houston is 16-13-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 19-11 ATS on the road.
- The Heat have 15 unders, 14 overs and 1 push in 30 road games.
- In 30 home games, the Rockets have 19 overs and 11 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Houston are both 2-3 ATS.
- The Heat have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Rockets have 3 unders and 2 overs
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.0 points per game (8.5 above their season average).
- The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 2.2 for the season.
