A five-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Denver Nuggets (37-18) when they welcome the Miami Heat (25-29) to Pepsi Center. Action begins at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 11, 2019, and can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
Both teams lost in their last matchup. The Nuggets (6.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 117-110, while the Heat (3.5-point underdogs) fell to the Golden State Warriors, 120-118. The Denver game finished 2 points under the projected point total of 229, while the Miami game went 17.5 points over the projected point total of 220.5.
Miami had an offensive rebounding percentage of 42.0 (above their season average of 25.4) while Denver forced Philadelphia into a turnover percentage of 15.6 (above the 11.9 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who accumulated 27 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. This gave him his 10th triple-double of the season. Josh Richardson, meanwhile had a good outing for Miami, finishing with 37 points and five assists.
In their first matchup this year, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 103-99 win. He notched a triple-double with 29 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. The two teams combined to put up 202 points, which was under the projected point total of 209.5, and Denver covered as a 2-point underdog. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (34.1 vs. 20.5). Miami, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (6.0 vs. 14.5).
Heat games have a slight tendency to finish over the total (49.1 percent). Miami holds records of 25-29 straight up (SU) and 26-26-1 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Nuggets games, with 28 overs compared to 27 unders. Moreover, Denver is 37-18 SU and 29-26 ATS.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Denver currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.0) and Miami is 24th (100.7).
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 7.7 steals per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Heat rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
- Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while Miami ranks 26th (18.0).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.6) while the Heat rank 18th (23.8).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (53.5) while Miami ranks 17th (48.1).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Miami ranks 10th (43.9).
- The Heat rank fourth in blocks per game (5.7) while the Nuggets rank 22nd (4.6).
- The Nuggets rank 17th in fast break points per game (12.3) while the Heat rank 28th (9.6).
- Miami averages 33.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Denver ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.2).
- Denver averages 15.5 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the league. Miami ranks 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Miami is 15-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 17-1.
- The Nuggets are 35-13 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 23-15.
- Denver is 19-8 ATS at home, while Miami is 16-10 ATS on the road.
- In 26 road games, the Heat have 13 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
- The Nuggets have 16 overs and 11 unders in 27 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 117.2 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 121.8 points per game (14.5 above their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.2, up from 0.5 for the season.
