The Dallas Mavericks (16-34) will be at home in American Airlines Center when they challenge the Miami Heat (28-21). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 196.5 points with Miami opening as a 1.5-point favorite. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 29, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Preview
The Heat were victorious over the Charlotte Hornets in their last game, 95-91. Josh Richardson led Miami in scoring with 19 points on 6-for-13 shooting. The Heat held the Hornets to an effective field goal percentage of 0.375 (below their season average of 0.496) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.4 (above their season average of 20.1).
In the Mavericks last matchup, they were beaten by the Denver Nuggets, 91-89. Harrison Barnes led Dallas in scoring with 22 points on 9-for-19 shooting. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (20.5 vs. 15.4). Dallas, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (7.9 vs. 13.8).
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Dallas ranks 25th in possessions per game (97.0) and Miami is 28th (96.6).
Games involving these teams have a tendency to go under the projected point total. Miami games have gone under 57.1 percent of the time, while 56.0 percent of Dallas games have gone under. The Heat have the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (28-21 vs. 16-34), but the Mavericks have the superior against the spread (ATS) record (25-25 vs. 23-24-2).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Richardson, who has averaged 12.2 points, 4.2 assists and 2.0 steals, while the Mavericks have gotten great contributions from Dennis Smith Jr. (18.4 points, 6.0 assists and 1.6 steals).
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to score 214 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 195.5. The Heat won 113-101, covering as 2-point underdogs. Miami’s 0.750 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.620. Richardson was a top performer in the victory, with 24 points and five assists.
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.6) while the Heat rank 15th (16.1).
- Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Dallas ranks 13th (22.4).
- Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.4) while Dallas ranks 16th (29.1).
- Miami ranks 24th in steals per game (7.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (6.9).
- Miami is 16-10 ATS on the road with 15 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
- At home, Dallas is 12-15 ATS with 16 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 12-9 and Miami is 16-5.
- The Mavericks are 10-15 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 20-7.
- The Mavericks rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.0) while the Heat rank 14th (43.3).
- Miami ranks sixth in fast break points allowed per game (9.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (13.8).
- The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while the Mavericks rank 26th (3.8).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (10.7) while the Heat rank ninth (11.5).
- Miami ranks seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Dallas ranks 27th (45.6).
Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Mavericks average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 2.0 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 94.8 points per game (5.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 97.0 points per game (4.3 below their season average).
