The Cleveland Cavaliers (29-20) will be at home in Quicken Loans Arena when they clash against the Miami Heat (29-21). Cleveland is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points. Action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Ohio.
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview
The Heat were victorious over the Dallas Mavericks in their last matchup, 95-88. Hassan Whiteside was the games leading scorer with 25 points on 10-for-15 shooting. Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.533 (above their season average of 0.523) and a free throw rate of 0.200 (above their season average of 0.171). Dallas had marks of 0.430 and 0.163, respectively, for those same stats.
In the Cavaliers last matchup, they were beaten by the Detroit Pistons, 125-114. LeBron James was Cleveland’s high scorer with 21 points on 9-for-20 shooting. Detroit had a turnover percentage of 8.7 (better than their season average of 12.2). Cleveland, meanwhile, did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (25-32; 78.1 percent).
It could be a tough game for Cleveland on the offensive glass. The Cavaliers are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 26th in offensive rebounding percentage at 19.9 percent. Meanwhile, Miami ranks fourth in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.6 percent. Additionally, the Heat, who rank 25th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), will battle against the Cavaliers, who rank first in opponents FTA rate (0.160).
Of Miami’s 50 games, 29 have finished under the projected point total, while 25 of Cleveland’s 48 games have finished over the O/U total. Both teams have decent straight up (SU) records (29-21 for Miami; 29-20 for Cleveland), but the Heat have the advantage against the spread (ATS). Miami is 24-24-2 ATS, while the Cavaliers are 14-33-1.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Josh Richardson, who has averaged 13.2 points, 4.6 assists and 1.8 steals, while the Cavaliers have gotten solid contributions from Isaiah Thomas (17.0 points and 4.4 assists).
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to put up 205 points in that game, which was just under the projected point total of 209.5. The Cavaliers won 108-97, covering as 4-point favorites. The Cavaliers dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.210 and a superb effective field goal percentage of 0.562. The Heat were 0.155 and 0.500, respectively, for those same stats. Kevin Love was the game’s top overall scorer with 38 points.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Free Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.0) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (47.2).
- Miami averages 42.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. Cleveland ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
- Cleveland ranks 14th in fast break points per game (11.2) while Miami ranks 26th (7.5).
- Miami is 17-10 ATS on the road, while Cleveland is 5-18-1 ATS at home.
- Of the Heat’s 27 road games, they have 16 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
- Of the Cavaliers 24 home games, they have 13 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.
- Miami is 17-5 when they allow under 100 points, while Cleveland is 10-2.
- The Cavaliers are 29-12 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 20-7.
- The Cavaliers rank 21st in second chance points per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 27th (10.2).
- Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Cleveland ranks last (26.1).
- The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while the Cavaliers rank last (31.8).
- The Cavaliers rank 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Heat rank 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.2).
- Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while Cleveland ranks 27th (3.8).
Betting Trends:
- Cleveland is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Cavaliers have been outscored by an average of 4.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Cleveland has defeated opponents by an average of 0.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 94.8 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 94.4 points per game (6.7 below their season average).
