Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Prediction

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The Miami Heat (5-8), 2-point favorites, will travel to the Barclays Center to challenge the Brooklyn Nets (6-8). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 219.5 points and it can be seen on YES Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018.

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Odds

Both teams fell in their last matchup. The Heat (2.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 124-114, while the Nets (4.5-point underdogs) fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves, 120-113. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 13.5 points over the projected point total of 224.5, while the Brooklyn game went 6.5 points over the projected point total of 226.5.

Miami made 13 of their 31 three pointers (41.9 percent) while Brooklyn forced Minnesota into a turnover percentage of 19.7 (above their season average of 11.0). D’Angelo Russell played a key role for Brooklyn with 31 points and six assists. Meanwhile, Miami was led by Goran Dragic, who finished with 22 points and five assists.

The Nets held the advantage in this series last year, securing victories in three out of four games. In the last contest, Brooklyn won 110-109. Getting to the free throw line was one of Brooklyn’s largest advantages. They had 28 free throw attempts, while Miami had 21. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Games including the Heat have a tendency to finish over the total (76.9 percent). Miami comes into the game with records of 5-8 straight up (SU) and 5-8 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is highly accurate when setting the O/U total of Nets games, with an even split between overs and unders. Additionally, Brooklyn is 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS.

Russell has really been playing well recently for Brooklyn, averaging 16.6 points, 4.4 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games.

The offensive glass could be a huge advantage for Miami in this matchup. The Heat are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.6 percent. Meanwhile, Brooklyn ranks 28th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.6 percent.

Heat at Nets Betting Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.3) while the Nets rank sixth (44.7).
  • Miami averages 15.7 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Brooklyn ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (16.4).
  • The Nets rank first in three pointers allowed per game (24.9) while the Heat rank ninth (30.0).
  • Miami ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.2) while Brooklyn ranks 27th (8.1).
  • Brooklyn ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.6) while Miami ranks fifth (22.2).
  • The Heat rank first in blocks per game (6.9) while the Nets rank 22nd (4.6).
  • The Nets rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9) while the Heat rank 27th (20.2).
  • Miami ranks sixth in rebounds per game (47.4) while Brooklyn ranks 21st in rebounds allowed per game (46.7).
  • Brooklyn is 3-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 2-0.
  • When scoring over 100 points, the Nets are 6-7 and the Heat are 4-8.
  • Miami is 2-3 ATS on the road, while Brooklyn is 2-3 ATS at home.
  • Of the Heat’s 5 road games, they have 4 overs and 1 under.
  • In 5 home games, the Nets have 3 overs and 2 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Brooklyn has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Nets have outscored opponents by an average of 5.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Brooklyn has lost by an average of 0.9 points.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 108.2 points per game (2.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (1.0 below their season average).