Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics ATS Prediction 04/01/19

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The Miami Heat (38-38) will travel to TD Garden to meet the Boston Celtics (45-32). The game will air on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 1, 2019.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

The last time the Heat played, they were victorious over the New York Knicks, 100-92, covering as 7-point favorites. The Celtics, meanwhile, were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets, 110-96, and were unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Miami game went 17 points under the projected point total of 209, while the Boston game went 16.5 points under the projected point total of 222.5.

Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 29.2 (above their season average of 25.1) and a turnover percentage of 15.6 (worse than their season average of 12.6). New York was 17.8 and 17.0, respectively, for those same stats. Boston, on the other hand, held Brooklyn to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.5 (below their season average of 23.5). Boston was lifted by Gordon Hayward, who contributed 19 points and six rebounds. Dion Waiters was a key piece for Miami with 28 points and six assists.

The Celtics evened the season series at one with a 107-99 victory in their most recent matchup. Kyrie Irving recorded a double-double with 26 points and 10 assists. Boston made 12 of its 30 three pointers (40.0 percent). Miami, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (16-18; 88.9 percent). The two teams combined for 206 points, which was under the projected point total of 212.5, and Boston was unable to cover as a 10-point favorite.

Games including the Heat have gone over the total 50.0 percent of the time. Miami comes into the contest with records of 38-38 straight up (SU) and 40-34-2 against the spread (ATS).

Games involving the Celtics tend to go over the total (55.8 percent). Further, Boston is 45-32 SU and 35-40-2 ATS.

Miami might struggle to find the bottom of the net as they go head-to-head against one of the league’s best defenses. Boston currently ranks sixth in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 26th in offensive efficiency.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Free Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (42.1) while the Celtics rank fifth (45.7).
  • Boston ranks seventh in fast break points per game (16.2) while Miami ranks last (9.8).
  • The Heat rank ninth in rebounds per game (46.2) while the Celtics rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (45.7).
  • Boston ranks fourth in steals per game (8.6) while Miami ranks 13th (7.7).
  • Miami averages 14.3 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Boston ranks 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
  • The Celtics rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Heat rank 20th (17.1).
  • The Celtics rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Heat rank 11th (4.9).
  • Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (23.2) while Boston ranks sixth (23.5).
  • Boston averages 34.6 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Miami ranks 19th in three pointers allowed per game (33.0).
  • Boston is 15-4 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 21-3.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Heat are 34-19 and the Celtics are 45-23.
  • Miami is 25-12 ATS on the road, while Boston is 20-19 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 23 of the Celtics’ 39 home games, while 18 of the Heat’s 37 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Celtics are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 4 unders and 1 over, while Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 3.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 0.0 points.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 107.8 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.4 points per game (5.3 above their season average).