Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks ATS Prediction 01/06/19

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The Miami Heat (19-18), 6-point favorites, will be at State Farm Arena to square off against the Atlanta Hawks (11-27) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 6, 2019.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks ATS Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last matchup. The Heat (6.5-point favorites) beat the Washington Wizards, 115-109, while the Hawks (13.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Milwaukee Bucks, 144-112. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 12.5 points over the projected point total of 211.5, while the Atlanta game finished 26 points over the projected point total of 230.

Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.198 (above their season average of 0.188) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.2 (below their season average of 26.6). Washington was 0.153 and 21.3, respectively, for those same stats. Atlanta, meanwhile, had a free throw rate of 0.282 (above their season average of 0.191). Trae Young was a key piece for Atlanta with 13 points and 10 assists. Hassan Whiteside had a good game for Miami, finishing with 21 points and 18 rebounds.

The Hawks have won both matchups against the Heat this year. The two teams combined to score 228 points in their most recent game, which was just over the projected point total of 223.5. Atlanta won 115-113, covering as an 8-point underdog. Atlanta was successful at getting to and converting from the free throw line. The Hawks made 27 of their 32 free throws (84.4 percent), while the Heat were just 20-30 (66.7 percent). Young recorded a double-double with 17 points and 10 assists.

Oddsmakers have a tendency to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 56.8 percent of their games have finished over the total. Miami holds records of 19-18 straight up (SU) and 20-16-1 against the spread (ATS).

Much like Miami, Hawks games also tend to go over the total (55.3 percent). Additionally, Atlanta owns records of 11-27 SU and 16-22 ATS.

Justise Winslow has been playing at a high level as of late for Miami, averaging 17 points,6.0 rebounds,5.2 assists,2.4 steals over the last five games.

The offense of Atlanta will square off against the top-notch defense of Miami. The Hawks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat are seventh in defensive efficiency. The Heat figure to have the edge on that end of the court.

Heat at Hawks Free Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Hawks rank 6 in points off turnovers per game (18.36842105263158) while the Heat rank 22 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.675675675675677).
  • Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (21.8) while Atlanta ranks last (27.8).
  • The Heat average 47.6 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Hawks rank 24th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
  • Miami ranks 10th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while Atlanta ranks 29th (10.7).
  • Miami averages 33.24324324324324 three pointers per game, which ranks 8 in the league. Atlanta ranks 26 in three pointers allowed per game (33.36842105263158).
  • The Heat average 15.5 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the league. The Hawks rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.9).
  • The Hawks average 5.605263157894737 blocks per game, which ranks 5 in the NBA. The Heat rank 23 in blocks allowed per game (5.594594594594595).
  • Miami ranks 3 in points allowed in the paint per game (42.270270270270274) while Atlanta ranks 15 (48.526315789473685).
  • Miami ranks sixth in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while Atlanta ranks last (16.7).
  • Atlanta is 2-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 12-1.
  • The Hawks are 10-20 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 17-13.
  • Atlanta is 5-11 ATS at home, while Miami is 12-5 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 10 of the Heat’s 17 road games, while 9 of the Hawks’ 16 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Hawks are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 5 overs, while Atlanta has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (4.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.8 points per game (3.0 below their season average).
  • The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 10.0, up from 9.3 for the season.