Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds

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The Miami Heat (25-18) and the Milwaukee Bucks (23-20), who both like to play patient, will clash at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 201.5 points with Milwaukee opening as a 4-point favorite. Action starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview

The Heat were beaten by the Chicago Bulls in their last game, 119-111. With 22 points on 7-for-17 shooting, Goran Dragic was Miami’s leading scorer. Chicago held the Heat to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.5 (below their season average of 20.1). Miami, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (19-24; 79.2 percent).

The last time the Bucks played, they topped the Washington Wizards, 104-95. Milwaukee was lifted by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was the teams high scorer with 27 points on 9-for-23 shooting. Milwaukee played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 15.3 (worse than their season average of 12.4) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9 (above their season average of 19.0). For those same stats, Washington put up marks of 20.4 and 27.5, respectively.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the leagues slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Milwaukee ranks 26th in possessions per game (97.1) and Miami is 27th (96.8).

In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Games involving Miami have gone under 55.8 percent of the time, while Milwaukee games have finished over 55.8 percent of the time. Both teams have very similar records straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The Heat are 25-18 SU and 19-22-2 ATS, while the Bucks are 23-20 SU and 19-19-5 ATS.

Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Dragic, who has averaged 20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists, while the Bucks have gotten solid contributions from Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists).

These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to put up 176 points in that game, which was well under the projected point total of 203.5. The Heat won 97-79, covering as 2-point favorites. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.533 vs. 0.342). Milwaukee, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (14.8 vs. 8.6). Despite the loss, Antetokounmpo had a stellar game with 22 points and six rebounds.

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (20.0) while the Bucks rank 13th (22.4).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Miami ranks 10th (4.6).
  • Milwaukee ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.6) while Miami ranks 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.2).
  • Milwaukee ranks 28th in second chance points per game (10.0) while Miami ranks 29th (9.7).
  • On the road, Miami is 13-9 ATS with 13 unders, 8 overs and 1 push.
  • At home, Milwaukee is 8-11-3 ATS with 12 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
  • When allowing below 100 points, Miami is 15-3 and Milwaukee is 9-3.
  • The Bucks are 19-11 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 18-7.
  • The Bucks rank fourth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Heat rank 11th (7.5).
  • Miami ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (24.3).
  • The Bucks rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.5) while the Heat rank 28th (7.6).
  • The Heat rank 23rd in rebounds per game (41.8) while the Bucks rank last (38.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (47.5) while Miami ranks 26th (41.0).

Betting Trends:

  • Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 5 unders in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Bucks average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 0.9 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.0 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.0 points per game (2.8 below their season average).