The Indiana Pacers (21-19) will try to put an end to the five-game winning streak of Miami when they welcome the Heat (23-17) to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 207 points with Indiana opening as a 4-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Odds Preview
The Heat barely escaped the Toronto Raptors in their last game, 90-89. Goran Dragic led Miami in scoring with 24 points on 10-for-21 shooting. Miami’s rebounding was their largest advantage. The Heat had 20 offensive rebounds and 64 total rebounds, while the Raptors had seven and 37, respectively.
In the Pacers last matchup, they topped the Milwaukee Bucks, 109-96. With 17 points on 8-for-12 shooting, Domantas Sabonis led Indiana in scoring. Indiana dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.6 (below their season average of 22.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.601 (above their season average of 0.535). For those same stats, Milwaukee put up marks of 13.5 and 0.507, respectively.
Miami could have a tough time creating turnovers. Indiana ranks eighth in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.4 percent), while Miami forces the 19th-most turnovers (13.9 percent). Also, the Heat rank 26th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), while the Pacers rank third in opponents FTA rate (0.164).
Both of these teams have typically gone under the O/U total. Miami games have gone under 56.4 percent of the time, while games involving Indiana have finished under 55.0 percent of the time. Both teams have decent straight up (SU) records (23-17 for Miami; 21-19 for Indiana), but the Pacers have the edge against the spread (ATS). Indiana is 22-18 ATS, while the Heat are 16-21-2.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Dragic, who has averaged 19.0 points and 7.6 assists, while the Pacers have received solid contributions from Sabonis (14.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.2 blocks).
These two teams have met twice already this season, each winning once. In the most recent matchup, Myles Turner had 25 points and seven rebounds and the Pacers beat the Heat 120-95, covering as 6-point underdogs. The two teams combined to put up 215 points, which was 6.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Pacers dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an extraordinary effective field goal percentage of 0.665 and a turnover percentage of 11.9. For those same stats, the Heat put up marks of 0.500 and 14.4, respectively.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Odds Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (20.3) while the Pacers rank 21st (23.8).
- Indiana ranks 16th in second chance points per game (12.1) while Miami ranks 27th (10.1).
- Miami averages 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Indiana ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
- Miami is 11-8 ATS on the road with 12 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
- Indiana is 12-10 ATS at home with 14 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
- Miami is 14-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Indiana is 11-1.
- The Heat are 17-6 when they reach the century mark, while the Pacers are 19-8.
- The Pacers rank 14th in points in the paint per game (44.1) while the Heat rank 26th (41.0).
- Indiana ranks third in fast break points per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 26th (7.3).
- The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.0) while the Pacers rank 23rd (30.5).
- Indiana ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Miami ranks 22nd (15.1).
Betting Trends:
- Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Pacers average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 0.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.6 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.8 points per game (0.1 below their season average).
