The Detroit Pistons (24-26) will be at home in Little Caesars Arena when they clash with the Miami Heat (29-23). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 197 points with Detroit set as a 2-point favorite. Action starts at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Detroit.
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons ATS Preview
In the Heat’s last game, they were beaten by the Philadelphia 76ers, 103-97. Miami’s Bam Adebayo put together a good performance, recording 15 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Philadelphia held the Heat to an effective field goal percentage of 0.460 (below their season average of 0.521). Miami, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.8 (above their season average of 20.2).
The Pistons hope to keep it rolling after edging the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing, 104-102. With 24 points on 6-for-12 shooting, Blake Griffin was the top scorer from either team. Detroit played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.355 (above their season average of 0.164) and a turnover percentage of 7.1 (better than their season average of 12.1). For those same stats, Memphis put up marks of 0.146 and 8.1, respectively.
Detroit might have trouble finding the bottom of the net as they go head-to-head against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Miami currently ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, while the Pistons rank 21st in offensive efficiency.
Of Miami’s 51 games that accepted bets, 30 have finished under the O/U total, while 27 of Detroit’s 50 games have finished under the O/U total. The Heat have the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (29-23 vs. 24-26), but both teams are close to the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Kelly Olynyk, who has averaged 11.6 points, while the Pistons have gotten solid contributions from Andre Drummond (17.4 points, 16.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.8 blocks and 1.6 steals).
These two teams have already met twice this season, each winning once. In the most recent contest, Olynyk scored a game-high 25 points and the Heat beat the Pistons 111-104, covering as 4.5-point favorites. He also recorded 13 rebounds. The two teams combined to score 215 points, which was 16 points above the projected point total of 199 points. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pistons. Miami had a rate of 18.9, while Detroit posted a mark of 12.8.
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons Prediction
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Pistons rank ninth in points off turnovers per game (17.3) while the Heat rank 25th (14.9).
- Detroit ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Miami ranks 12th (7.5).
- Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while Detroit ranks 13th (28.8).
- On the road, Miami is 18-10 ATS with 17 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
- At home, Detroit is 11-13-1 ATS with 13 overs and 12 unders.
- Detroit is 12-6 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 17-6.
- The Pistons are 21-12 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 20-7.
- The Pistons rank 17th in fast break points per game (10.5) while the Heat rank 27th (7.6).
- Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (20.0) while Detroit ranks 26th (24.3).
- The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Pistons rank 27th (3.7).
- Detroit ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.1) while Miami ranks 27th (10.4).
Betting Trends:
- Detroit is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
- The Pistons average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 0.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 92.8 points per game (7.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 92.4 points per game (8.5 below their season average).
