Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns Betting Prediction 11/07/19

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The Miami Heat (5-2), 1.5-point underdogs, will travel to Talking Stick Resort Arena to clash with the Phoenix Suns (5-2). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Arizona at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 7, 2019.

Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

The Suns hope to maintain momentum after covering the 1-point spread against the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest, 114-109. The Heat, meanwhile, were blown out by the Denver Nuggets, 109-89, and were not able to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Phoenix game finished 0.5 points over the projected point total of 222.5, while the Miami game went 12.5 points under the projected point total of 210.5.

The Suns made 21 of their 27 free throws (77.8 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.604 (above their season average of 0.536). Miami, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.182 vs. 0.116). Devin Booker was a key piece for Phoenix with 40 points. Miami, meanwhile, received a boost from Jimmy Butler, who had 16 points and seven rebounds.

This series was highly competitive last year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the last matchup, the Suns won 124-121. Phoenix was successful at getting to and converting from the free throw line. The Suns made 21 of their 25 free throws (84.0 percent), while the Heat were 16-20 (80.0 percent).

Heat games tend to go under the total (57.1 percent). Miami holds records of 5-2 straight up (SU) and 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS).

Suns games also have typically gone under the O/U total (71.4 percent). Moreover, Phoenix owns records of 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS.

The offense of Phoenix will go head-to-head against the elite defense of Miami. Dating back to last season, the Suns rank 28th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat are seventh in defensive efficiency. The Heat figure to have the edge on that end of the court. It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Heat, which ranks 25th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.2 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Suns, which has forced the third-most turnovers in the league (14.9 percent).

Heat vs. Suns Odds Pick

NBA Tip: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Heat rank 13th in steals per game (7.9) while the Suns rank 29th in steals allowed per game (8.9).
  • Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.7) while Phoenix ranks 29th (52.3).
  • The Heat rank ninth in rebounds per game (46.4) while the Suns rank last (40.6).
  • Phoenix ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (29.9) while Miami ranks 23rd (33.6).
  • Miami ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (23.4) while Phoenix ranks 24th (25.6).
  • The Heat rank seventh in second chance points per game (14.0) while the Suns rank last in second chance points allowed per game (15.2).
  • The Suns average 18.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Heat rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.5).
  • Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.6) while Phoenix ranks 17th (5.0).
  • Phoenix ranks eighth in fast break points per game (15.3) while Miami ranks 29th (10.1).
  • Miami is 24-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Phoenix is 6-2.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Suns are 23-42 and the Heat are 40-24.