Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans Free Prediction 12/16/18

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The Miami Heat (12-16), 7-point underdogs, will travel to the Smoothie King Center to challenge the New Orleans Pelicans (15-15). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 16, 2018.

Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Pelicans (2.5-point underdogs) defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-114, while the Heat (4-point underdog) beat the Memphis Grizzlies 100-97. The New Orleans game finished 2 points under the projected point total of 234, while the Miami game finished 3 points over the projected point total of 194.

The Heat had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 36.8 (above their season average of 25.3) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.530 (above their season average of 0.501). The Pelicans, meanwhile, had an extraordinary offensive rebounding percentage of 36.2 (above their season average of 25.7) and had a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.220). Anthony Davis fueled New Orleans with 44 points and 18 rebounds. Meanwhile, Miami was led by Josh Richardson, who had 18 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Dwyane Wade led the Heat to a 106-101 win. He put up 18 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds. The two teams combined for 207 points, which was well under the projected point total of 228, and Miami covered as a 3-point underdog. The Heat’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Pelicans. Miami had a rate of 8.8, while New Orleans posted a mark of 14.4.

Of the Heat’s 28 games, 15 have finished over the projected point total. Miami heads into the contest with records of 12-16 straight up (SU) and 14-14 against the spread (ATS).

Just over half of Pelicans games have finished over the total. Further, New Orleans owns records of 15-15 SU and 14-16 ATS.

The Heat’s Kelly Olynyk has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 14 points,6.4 rebounds,1.2 steals per game. Meanwhile, Julius Randle has averaged 28 points,11.2 rebounds,3.4 assists during that same time frame for the Pelicans.

The aggressive New Orleans offense might be living from the foul line in this meeting. The Pelicans rank fifth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.221, while Miami ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.215).

Heat at Pelicans ATS Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank 14 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2) while the Heat rank 26 (18.642857142857142).
  • New Orleans averages 16.1 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. Miami ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (15.1).
  • The Pelicans rank first in points in the paint per game (58.3) while the Heat rank 19th (46.5).
  • Miami ranks ninth in steals allowed per game (7.4) while New Orleans ranks 25th (8.9).
  • New Orleans ranks 4 in rebounds per game (47.7) while Miami ranks 19 in rebounds allowed per game (45.714285714285715).
  • The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (22.0) while the Pelicans rank 24th (25.3).
  • The Heat average 6.5 blocks per game, which ranks 1 in the league. The Pelicans rank 16 in blocks allowed per game (5.166666666666667).
  • Miami ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (33.9) while New Orleans ranks 25th (28.4).
  • In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, New Orleans is 2-0 and Miami is 6-1.
  • The Pelicans are 15-14 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 11-11.
  • New Orleans is 8-7 ATS at home, while Miami is 9-5 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 8 of the Pelicans’ 15 home games, while 8 of the Heat’s 14 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pelicans are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push, while New Orleans has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.4 points per game (5.7 below their season average).
  • The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.2, up from 1.9 for the season.