Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction 11/05/19

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It will be a matchup between two tremendous defenses when the Denver Nuggets (4-2), 5-point favorites, challenge the Miami Heat (5-1) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 209 points and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 5, 2019.

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

The Heat had no trouble getting past the Houston Rockets in their last outing, 129-100, despite being 3-point underdogs. The Nuggets, on the other hand, defeated the Orlando Magic,91-87, resulting in a push. The Miami game went 5 points under the projected point total of 234, while the Denver game finished 21.5 points under the projected point total of 199.5.

Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 13.2 (better than their season average of 16.4) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8 (below their season average of 22.7). For those same stats, Houston was 19.2 and 8.9, respectively. The Nuggets, meanwhile, knocked down 28 of their 39 free throws (71.8 percent), while the Magic had a turnover percentage of 14.2 (above their season average of 11.2). Nikola Jokic had a solid performance for Denver with 20 points and seven rebounds. Jimmy Butler had a good game for Miami, recording 18 points, nine assists and seven rebounds.

The Nuggets dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the last game, Denver won 103-87. The Nuggets’ 20.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Heat, who had a mark of 16.7.

Games featuring the Heat have no tendency in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Miami holds records of 5-1 straight up (SU) and 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Nuggets’ 6 games, 5 have finished under the total. Denver has a solid 4-2 SU record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (2-3-1 ATS).

Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. Denver ranks 28th in possessions per game (99.9) and Miami is 23rd (101.0) since the 2018-19 season.

Heat vs. Nuggets Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Nuggets rank 18th in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while the Heat rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (33.7).
  • Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while Miami ranks 23rd (17.5).
  • The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (51.4) while the Heat rank 16th (48.9).
  • Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.5) while Miami ranks 16th (24.5).
  • Denver ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (43.2) while Miami ranks ninth (44.1).
  • The Heat rank fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while the Nuggets rank 23rd (4.5).
  • The Nuggets rank 18th in fast break points per game (12.2) while the Heat rank 29th (10.1).
  • Denver averages 15.5 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. Miami ranks 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
  • Denver is 30-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 24-3.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 40-24 and the Nuggets are 59-26.