The Memphis Tigers (14-11, 5-7 AAC) and the SMU Mustangs (15-10, 5-7 AAC), who both like to play patient, will go head-to-head at Moody Coliseum. SMU opened as a 7.5-point favorite, while the games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 135 points. Action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 14, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPNU.
Memphis Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs ATS Preview
The Tigers were beaten by the UCF Knights in their last matchup, 68-64. With 23 points on 6-for-8 shooting, Kyvon Davenport was the games leading scorer. UCF had an effective field goal percentage of 0.588 (above their season average of 0.474). Memphis, on the other hand, did a great job of making free throws (17-19; 89.5 percent).
In the Mustangs last game, they were topped by the No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats, 76-51. Jimmy Whitt was the top scorer from either team with 19 points on 7-for-14 shooting. Cincinnati’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over SMU. The Bearcats had a rate of 8.8 (better than their season average of 15.0), while the Mustangs posted a mark of 17.9.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams face off. SMU currently ranks 343rd in possessions per game (64.2) and Memphis is 299th (67.0). It could also be a sloppy game for the Tigers offense, which ranks 281st in ball security (turnover percentage of 20.5 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Mustangs, which forces the 36th-most turnovers in the nation (22.1 percent).
Neither team has shown a tendency in terms of going over or under the projected point total. Both teams have decent straight up (SU) records (14-11 for Memphis; 15-10 for SMU), but the Mustangs have the edge against the spread (ATS). SMU is 9-11 ATS, while the Tigers are 8-13-1.
This is the first time these teams will battle this year. The Mustangs won both matchups played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, SMU won 103-62. The Mustangs dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a phenomenal effective field goal percentage of 0.732 and an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.375. The Tigers were 0.369 and 0.215, respectively, for those same stats.
Memphis Tigers at SMU Mustangs Betting Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – Memphis, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mustangs rank 109th in blocks per game (3.3) while the Tigers rank 160th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
- On the road, Memphis is 3-6 ATS with 5 overs and 4 unders.
- At home, SMU is 6-4 ATS with 5 overs and 5 unders.
- SMU ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (4.9) while Memphis ranks 179th (7.0).
- The Mustangs average 15.5 assists per game, which ranks 64th in the NCAA. The Tigers rank 216th in assists allowed per game (15.1).
- SMU ranks 143rd in three pointers attempted per game (22.0) while Memphis ranks 254th (18.7).
Betting Trends:
- SMU is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Memphis is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Mustangs have been outscored by an average of 5.8 points in their last five games. On the season, SMU has defeated opponents by an average of 8.4 points.
- During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 69.6 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 75.4 points per game (4.6 above their season average).
