Head Coach Josh Heupel and the No. 7 UCF Knights (-4) are coming into the American Athletic Championship Game as favorites against Coach Mike Norvell and the Memphis Tigers. Kickoff for this criticalshowdown is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and ABC will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference matchup, UCF is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Tigers are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Knights are -175. If one team can create a bunch of points early on it’ll result in a nice in-game betting scenario. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) sky-high at 70.5 points.
The sharp action is siding with the Tigers, as the line opened at -5. The game’s total has yet to change after being set initially at 70.5.
The Tigers are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 8.2 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 6-5.
The Knights have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 6.0 units. They’re 8-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-8.
The undefeated Tigers have gone 8-4 straight up (SU), including 5-3 SU against AAC opponents. The Knights are 11-0 SU overall and 8-0 SU in conference play.
The Tigers are trying to maintain momentum after a solid 52-31 win over Houston last week. Brady White completed 21 passes for 209 yards, one score and two interceptions. Darrell Henderson (178 rushing yards on 24 attempts, two TDs) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (128 yards on 19 carries, two TDs) provided the ground attack while Tony Pollard (eight receptions, 116 yards) and Mechane Slade (three catches, 30 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
UCF just put together a 38-10 win over South Florida. As a group, the team collectively completed 10-of-24 passes for 167 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Darriel Mack Jr. went five-for-14 for 81 yards while McKenzie Milton was five-of-10 for 86 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Greg McCrae (181 yards on 16 rush attempts, three TDs) and Adrian Killins Jr. (65 yards on 14 carries) handled the running game as Gabriel Davis (five receptions, 69 yards, one TD) and Dredrick Snelson (two catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each team sports a similar (59-41) run-pass ratio on the season. The Tigers have produced 275.9 rush yards per game (including 263.3 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 42 scores on the ground this year. The Knights are totaling 269.8 rushing yards per game (271.6 in conference) and have 35 total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers so far, the Tigers could have the advantage in terms of RB efficiency, since their backfield has produced 6.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Knights have ran for 5.9 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has logged 254.3 yards/contest in the air overall (231.9 per game versus conference opposition) and has 26 passing TDs so far. The Knights have recorded 261.7 pass yards per outing (249 in the AAC) and also have 26 total pass scores.
Memphis has let opponents rush for an average of 154.5 yards and pass for 242.8 yards per game. The UCF D has given up 197.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 211.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.56 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers have given up a 6.15 ANY/A.
Offensively, White is up to 2,721 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 64 percent of his 305 attempts with 23 passing scores and only five interceptions. He has an 8.77 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.58 over the past two outings.
McKenzie Milton has managed to complete 158-of-264 passes for 2,395 yards, 22 TDs and six INTs for UCF. His ANY/A sits at 9.36 for the year and 9.63 over his last two outings.
Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights Betting Prediction
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: UCF, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Memphis’ last game was set at 76. The over cashed in the team’s 52-31 win over Houston.
- As a team, Memphis has produced 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.0 over its last two.
- UCF has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.6 over its past two.
- UCF has lost three fumbles this season while Memphis has let seven get away.
- Over its last three matches, Memphis is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for UCF’s last game going into it was 69.5. The under cashed in the 38-10 triumph over South Florida.
- In its last three games, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Tigers offense has created 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Knights have put up nine such plays.
- The Memphis defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while UCF has given up three such plays.
- The Memphis offense has created 41 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCF has created 29 such runs.
- Both teams have allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have given up 58 running plays of 10+ yards while the Knights have given up 85 such plays.
- The Memphis defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 34 times this season. UCF has produced just 25 sacks.
