Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction 01/12/19

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It will be a meeting between two stifling defenses when the Miami Heat (20-20), 4.5-point favorites, take on the Memphis Grizzlies (19-22) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 196.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 12, 2019.

Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Heat (2.5-point underdogs) defeated the Boston Celtics 115-99, while the Grizzlies (2.5-point underdog) beat the San Antonio Spurs 96-86. The Miami game went 2.5 points over the projected point total of 211.5, while the Memphis game went 24 points under the projected point total of 206.

Memphis dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 8.3 (better than their season average of 12.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.456 (below their season average of 0.511). For those same stats, San Antonio had marks of 12.3 and 0.428, respectively. Meanwhile, Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.3 (above their season average of 26.3) and a turnover percentage of 7.4 (better than their season average of 12.4). For those same stats, Boston put up marks of 18.0 and 9.4, respectively. Justise Winslow had a solid outing for Miami with 13 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Memphis rallied around Marc Gasol, who put up 26 points and 14 rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Josh Richardson led the Heat to a 100-97 win. He recorded 18 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Miami covered as a 4-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 197 points, which was just over the projected point total of 194. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (36.8 vs. 21.7). Memphis, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (6.9 vs. 15.1).

Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Grizzlies are involved, as 61.0 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total. Memphis comes into the contest with records of 19-22 straight up (SU) and 18-23 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Memphis, Heat games have typically finished over the O/U total (55.0 percent). Additionally, Miami is 20-20 SU and 21-18-1 ATS.

Winslow has really been playing well recently for Miami, averaging 12 points,5.4 assists,1.6 steals over the last five games.

Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Miami currently ranks 22nd in possessions per game (101.4) and Memphis is 30th (97.6).

Grizzlies vs. Heat ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat allow the second-fewest assists per game (22.1) while the Grizzlies rank fifth (22.8).
  • Miami ranks second in second chance points per game (15.3) while Memphis ranks 29th (9.3).
  • The Heat rank fifth in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while the Grizzlies rank 23rd (14.9).
  • Miami ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (33.4) while Memphis ranks 25th (27.0).
  • Memphis ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (7.1) while Miami ranks ninth (7.3).
  • The Heat rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.3) while the Grizzlies rank 29th (39.8).
  • The Grizzlies average 18.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
  • Memphis ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while Miami ranks third (42.8).
  • Memphis averages 6.1 blocks per game, which ranks second in the league. Miami ranks 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Memphis is 11-3 and Miami is 13-1.
  • The Heat are 18-13 when they score over 100 points, while the Grizzlies are 12-7.
  • Miami is 9-12-1 ATS at home, while Memphis is 8-13 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Grizzlies’ 21 road games, they have 14 unders and 7 overs.
  • In 22 home games, the Heat have 12 overs and 10 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Heat are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Grizzlies are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Memphis has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, up from 1.0 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 94.6 points per game (6.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.6 points per game (1.1 above their season average).