The Denver Nuggets (21-20) will be at home in Pepsi Center when they go head-to-head against the Memphis Grizzlies (13-27). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 207.5 points with Denver opening as a 7.5-point favorite. Action begins at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 12, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Preview
The Grizzlies barely escaped the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup, 105-102. With 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, Memphis Marc Gasol put together a solid outing. The Grizzlies had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 31.1 (above their season average of 21.1) and had a turnover percentage of 8.1 (better than their season average of 13.1).
In the Nuggets last matchup, they were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks, 110-97. Gary Harris was the games leading scorer with 25 points on 11-for-14 shooting. Atlanta did a fantastic job of making free throws (18-18; 100.0 percent). Denver, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (10.4 vs. 15.4).
Denver could own the offensive glass in this meeting. The Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.5 percent. Meanwhile, Memphis ranks 24th in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.4 percent.
Games featuring these teams have a tendency to finish under the projected point total. Memphis games have gone under 62.5 percent of the time, while 56.1 percent of Denver games have finished under. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Nuggets have a clear advantage. They are 21-20 SU and 19-20-2 ATS, while the Grizzlies are 13-27 SU and 15-23-2 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Grizzlies, it’s been Tyreke Evans, who has averaged 24.8 points, 6.8 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals, while the Nuggets have gotten solid contributions from Trey Lyles (19.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals).
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 196 points in that game, which was under the projected point total of 210. The Nuggets won 104-92, covering as 6-point favorites. The Nuggets dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 42.9 and a free throw rate of 0.190. For those same stats, the Grizzlies put up marks of 7.9 and 0.151, respectively. Nikola Jokic put up a double-double in the victory with 28 points and 13 rebounds.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Under
- The Grizzlies rank third in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Nuggets rank 24th (8.3).
- Denver averages 13.8 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Memphis ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.3).
- Memphis ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.1) while Denver ranks 22nd (46.0).
- Denver averages 30.5 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Memphis ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (27.6).
- Memphis is 8-10-1 ATS on the road with 9 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
- At home, Denver is 11-8 ATS with 11 unders and 8 overs.
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Memphis is 9-8 and Denver is 11-2.
- The Grizzlies are 8-9 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 17-12.
- The Grizzlies rank eighth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while the Nuggets rank 27th (19.2).
- Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while Memphis ranks 29th (40.0).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (23.8) while the Grizzlies rank 28th (20.7).
- The Grizzlies rank fourth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nuggets rank 16th (4.7).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Memphis ranks 24th (10.5).
- Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Memphis is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Nuggets have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. On the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 1.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 110.4 points per game (11.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (8.4 above their season average).