In the Sun Belt Championship Game, the Appalachian State Mountaineers (-18) are heavy favorites as they prepare to take on the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. The daytime game kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on ESPN. These programs met a year ago with the final outcome being a 63-14 victory for Appalachian State.
Betting Preview: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Appalachian State has been projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 18 points. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also receiving +800 moneyline odds while the Mountaineers are -1450. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 59 points. If the underdog strikes early, it’ll probably generate a solid live betting scenario.
This game’s opening line was -18. The O/U has yet to move after it was initially placed at 59.
The profitable Ragin’ Cajuns are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 4.8 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.
The Mountaineers have gained 0.5 units this season. The team is 8-3 ATS and also has an O/U record of 6-5.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-5 straight up (SU), including 5-3 SU against conference opponents. The Mountaineers are 9-2 SU overall and 7-1 SU in conference play.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a 31-28 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. the Ragin’ Cajuns completed 17-of-21 passes for 213 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Andre Nunez went 11-for-15 for 148 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while Levi Lewis completed six-of-six for 65 yards and one touchdown. Trey Ragas (115 yards on 23 rush attempts) and Elijah Mitchell (61 yards on 16 carries) spearheaded the ground attack while Ryheem Malone (six receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Ja’Marcus Bradley (four catches, 35 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Appalachian State is coming off of a 21-10 win over Troy. The Mountaineers defense did its part in the victory, holding the Trojans to only 170 passing yards and 62 yards on the ground. Deondre Douglas had a good showing in the loss, posting 69 yards on six catches for Troy. For Appalachian State, Zac Thomas completed 12-of-24 passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Darrynton Evans (108 yards on 20 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Thomas (33 yards on 11 carries, one TD) mounted the running attack as Corey Sutton (five receptions, 72 yards, two TDs) and Thomas Hennigan (two catches, 16 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Louisiana’s run the ball on 61.4 percent of its offensive possessions while Appalachian State has an overall rush percentage of 62.3. The Ragin’ Cajuns have rushed for 230.2 yards/game (including 229.8 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 28 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are totaling 242.5 rushing yards per game (242.1 in conference) and have 27 total rush TDs.
The Ragin’ Cajuns offense has averaged 218.3 yards in the air overall (203.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Mountaineers have put up 198.9 pass yards per game (168 in the SBC) and have 22 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Louisiana has allowed opponents to run for an average of 208.8 yards and pass for 234.6 yards per game. The Appalachian State D has allowed 153.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.36 to opposing QBs, while the Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed an 8.26 ANY/A.
Offensively, Nunez is up to 1,898 passing yards this year, and has connected on 66 percent of his 231 attempts with 17 passing scores and nine interceptions. He’s got a 6.96 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.94 over the last two games.
In the other locker room, Zac Thomas has connected on 118-of-193 passes for 1,505 yards, 15 TDs and four INTs. Thomas’ ANY/A sits at 7.81 for the year and 9.17 over his last two outings.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers Free Pick
SU Winner: Appalachian State, ATS Winner: Appalachian State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Louisiana’s last game was 71. The under cashed in the team’s 31-28 victory over Louisiana-Monroe.
- Louisiana has produced 6.7 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- Appalachian State has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 5.1 over its past two.
- The Appalachian State offense has lost four fumbles this season while Louisiana has lost three.
- In its last three matchups, Louisiana is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Appalachian State’s last game going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 victory over Troy.
- Over its last three contests, Appalachian State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Appalachian State has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a -20-point defeat to Georgia Southern on October 25th representing its one loss over that stretch.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns offense has registered 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Mountaineers have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Louisiana defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Appalachian State has given up four such plays.
- The Louisiana offense has created 29 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Appalachian State has created 27 such runs.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Mountaineers have given up nine such runs.
- The Louisiana D has 21 sacks on the year while Appalachian State has 20.
