The Miami Heat (32-29) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they clash against the Los Angeles Lakers (26-34). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215.5 points with Miami opening as a 3.5-point favorite. Action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 1, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports Sun.
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Odds Preview
In the Lakers’ last outing, they had no trouble getting past the Atlanta Hawks, 123-104. Brandon Ingram was Los Angeles’ leading scorer with 21 points on 10-for-16 shooting. The Lakers held the Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.0 (below their season average of 22.1) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.606 (above their season average of 0.512).
The Heat hope to maintain momentum after narrowly defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in their last matchup, 102-101. Miami received a boost from Hassan Whiteside, who recorded 15 points and 11 rebounds. Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 13.7 (worse than their season average of 13.2) and a free throw rate of 0.256 (above their season average of 0.174). For those same stats, Philadelphia was 19.6 and 0.226, respectively.
Miami figures to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat rank sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while Los Angeles is 18th in effective field goal percentage (0.514). It will also be a tale of two paces as the up-and-down Lakers rank first in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Heat rank 27th.
Of Los Angeles’ 60 games, 33 have finished over the projected point total, while 33 of Miami’s 61 games have finished under the projected point total. The Heat have the clear advantage straight up (SU) (32-29 vs. 26-34), but the Lakers have been better against the spread (ATS) (33-27 vs. 31-28-2).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Lakers, it’s been Julius Randle, who has averaged 19.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists, while the Heat have gotten solid contributions from Goran Dragic (17.6 points and 5.4 assists).
This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. The Lakers won the last matchup 127-100. The Lakers played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 and a free throw rate of 0.219. The Heat were 20.0 and 0.174, respectively, for those same stats.
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Free Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Lakers rank first in points in the paint per game (53.5) while the Heat rank 22nd (42.9).
- Miami ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.0) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (19.0).
- Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.8) while Los Angeles ranks 22nd (30.2).
- On the road, Los Angeles is 16-15 ATS with 17 overs and 14 unders.
- At home, Miami is 9-17-2 ATS with 15 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Miami is 19-6 and Los Angeles is 11-3.
- When reaching the century mark, the Lakers are 23-21 and the Heat are 22-13.
- The Lakers rank second in rebounds per game (46.6) while the Heat rank 20th (42.9).
- Los Angeles ranks second in second chance points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 27th (10.5).
- The Lakers rank second in fast break points per game (17.3) while the Heat rank 27th (8.0).
- The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (20.3) while the Lakers rank 16th (23.2).
- Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Los Angeles ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
Bettings Trends:
- Miami is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs.
- The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 4.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.4 points.
- During their last five games, the Lakers have scored an average of 117.6 points per game (9.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.4 points per game (4.5 above their season average).
