The Dallas Mavericks (17-38) will be at home in American Airlines Center when they clash with the Los Angeles Lakers (23-31). Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 10, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Preview
In the Lakers last matchup, they dismantled the Oklahoma City Thunder, 106-81. With 16 points and nine rebounds, Los Angeles Kyle Kuzma put together a solid outing. Los Angeles played a nearly perfect game. They had a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 7.3 (better than their season average of 13.6) and a free throw rate of 0.125 (matching their season average). Oklahoma City put up marks of 11.7 and 0.100, respectively, for those same stats.
The Mavericks are hoping for a better outcome after their 121-103 loss to the Golden State Warriors in their last game. With 16 points, 11 rebounds and five steals, Dirk Nowitzki played well for Dallas. Golden State had an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.9 (above their season average of 21.4). Dallas, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (9.1 vs. 14.2).
Los Angeles could struggle to create turnovers. Dallas ranks second in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while Los Angeles forces the 17th-most turnovers (13.9 percent). It will also be a matchup of contrasting paces as the up-tempo Lakers rank first in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Mavericks rank 26th.
Of Los Angeles 54 games, 27 have finished over the O/U total, while 31 of Dallas 55 games have finished under the projected point total. The Lakers have the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (23-31 vs. 17-38) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (29-25 vs. 27-28).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Lakers, it’s been Julius Randle, who has averaged 19.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while the Mavericks have gotten solid contributions from Nowitzki (12.4 points and 6.8 rebounds).
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to put up 208 points in that game, which was under the projected point total of 213.5. The Lakers won 107-101, covering as 5-point underdogs. Los Angeles had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.9 vs. 7.7). Dallas, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (22-28; 78.6 percent). Randle put up a double-double in the victory with 23 points and 15 rebounds.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks Odds Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Lakers rank second in rebounds per game (46.5) while the Mavericks rank 26th (40.5).
- Dallas averages 32.3 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
- Los Angeles ranks second in fast break points per game (17.0) while Dallas ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
- Los Angeles is 13-13 ATS on the road with 14 unders and 12 overs.
- Dallas is 12-16 ATS at home with 17 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
- When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 13-10 and Los Angeles is 11-3.
- When reaching the century mark, the Mavericks are 11-17 and the Lakers are 20-18.
- The Mavericks rank eighth in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while the Lakers rank 27th (5.6).
- Los Angeles ranks first in points in the paint per game (53.3) while Dallas ranks last (38.2).
- The Lakers rank second in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Mavericks rank 29th (10.1).
- The Lakers average 23.4 assists per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Mavericks rank 13th in assists allowed per game (22.8).
- Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.9) while Los Angeles ranks 27th (18.8).
Betting Trends:
- Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Mavericks average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.0, up from 2.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Lakers have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.8 points per game (8.3 below their season average).
