Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: Week 17 Free Pick

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To conclude the NFL regular season, the Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) are set to pay a visit to their AFC West foe Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. This late afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Denver is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 6.5 points in this Sunday AFC matchup. The Chargers are also receiving -260 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +220. If one team catches a lucky break early it will create a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 41.5 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with both the Chargers and the under. The opening line was originally set at 5.5 while the O/U was initially 42.5.

The Chargers have gained 3.7 units so far in 2018 and are 8-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 8-7.

The Broncos have lost 2.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-8-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-12.

The Chargers are 11-4 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 6-9 SU overall and 2-3 SU versus divisional foes.

The Bolts came up short to Baltimore 22-10 in a Week 16 contest where the passing game left much to be desired as Philip Rivers completed 23-of-37 passes for only 181 yards and two interceptions. Melvin Gordon III (just 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack while Justin Jackson (seven receptions, 47 yards) and Keenan Allen (five catches, 58 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

In Week 16, Oakland took care of this Denver crew by a score of 27-14. Case Keenum completed 23-of-37 passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Phillip Lindsay (46 yards on 10 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Courtland Sutton (six receptions, 65 yards, one TD) and DaeSean Hamilton (six catches, 40 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Los Angeles has run the ball on 43.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has an overall rush percentage of 40.5 percent. The Chargers have run for 117.1 yards per game (including 105.8 per game versus West opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are averaging 121.7 rushing yards per game (144.8 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.

The Bolts offensive scheme has logged 276.0 yards per game through the air overall (340.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 31 passing scores so far. The Broncos have put up 242.5 pass yards per outing (230 against AFC foes) and have 18 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Los Angeles seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 107.4 yards and throw for 239.6 yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 270.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bolts have given up an ANY/A of 6.07 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos are yielding an ANY/A of 6.33.

Passing-wise, Rivers is up to 3,819 yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 307-of-446 attempts with 29 passing scores and only eight interceptions. He has an 8.16 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.51 over the past two outings.

Justin Jackson, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams have combined to account for 320 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

Case Keenum has completed 303-of-490 passes for 3,341 yards, 17 TDs and 12 INTs for Denver. His ANY/A stands at 5.62 for the year and 3.39 over his past two games.

Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Phillip Lindsay have combined for 310 total yards over the last two outings.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Broncos, ATS Winner: Broncos, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Los Angeles’ last game was set at 43. The under cashed in the team’s 22-10 loss to Baltimore.
  • Los Angeles has rushed for 3.9 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Denver has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.0 over its last two.
  • The Denver offense has lost three fumbles this season while Los Angeles has let five get away.
  • In its last three matchups, Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Denver’s last match was 42. The under cashed in the 27-14 defeat to Oakland.
  • In its last three matches, Denver is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Chargers offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Broncos have accounted for eight such plays.
  • The Los Angeles defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Denver has given up nine such plays.
  • The Los Angeles offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Denver has created 12 such runs.
  • The Chargers defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Broncos have given up 14 such runs.
  • The Denver D has sacked opposing QBs 43 times this year. Los Angeles has registered just 37 sacks.