The Aggies (+6.5) are preparing to welcome their conference rival Liberty Flames (-6.5) to New Mexico State. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET and FLOF has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State enters this IndFBS game as the underdog and is currently getting 6.5 points. The Flames are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Aggies are +210. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59 points, and some decent live betting opportunities could be unveiled during this match.
The early action has shifted toward both the Flames and the under. The opening line was initially placed at 5 while the total was originally 61.
The Flames are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.8 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-4.
The Aggies have lost 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-3.
The Flames have gone 3-2 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any IndFBS competition yet. The Aggies are 0-5 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Flames just notched a 17-10 victory over New Mexico last weekTheir defense allowed the Lobos to rush for 223 yards on 43 attempts. Ahmari Davis had a good day for the Lobos in that one with 99 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Offensively, Stephen Calvert completed 24 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Joshua Mack (95 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Frankie Hickson (55 yards on 13 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Antonio Gandy-Golden (six receptions, 144 yards, one TD) and Hickson (five catches, 32 yards) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Fresno State got the victory against this New Mexico State crew by a score of 30-17. The Aggies defensive unit allowed the Bulldogs to eat up the clock by running for 239 yards on 38 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jalen Cropper had a productive showing, recording 118 rushing yards and a score on five attempts for Fresno State. For New Mexico State, Josh Adkins completed 26-of-46 passes for 210 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Jason Huntley (82 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat as OJ Clark (eight receptions, 44 yards) and Tony Nicholson (six catches, 81 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Liberty’s run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico State has a rush percentage of 39.3 percent. The Flames have rushed for 126 yards per game and have eight scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are putting up 97.2 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.
The Flames offensive scheme has tallied 281.4 yards per game in the air overall and has nine passing scores so far. The Aggies have recorded 245.2 pass yards per outing and have six total pass TDs.
Defensively, Liberty should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 228.2 rush yards and 192 pass yards per game. The New Mexico State defense has allowed 282 yards per game to opposing passers and 238.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Flames are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.04 to opponents, while the Aggies have given up an ugly 9.38 ANY/A.
Calvert has been more efficient than Adkins of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.49for the year and 13.15 over the last two outings. Adkins’ ANY/A is 2.78 for the year and 4.36 over his last two outings.
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Liberty, ATS Winner: Liberty, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Liberty’s previous game was 72. The under cashed in the team’s 17-10 victory over New Mexico.
- As a team, Liberty has produced 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.0 over its last two.
- New Mexico State has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its past two.
- New Mexico State has lost five fumbles this season while Liberty has lost four.
- In its last three matches, Liberty is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for New Mexico State’s previous matchup going into it was 62. The under cashed in the 30-17 loss to Fresno State.
- Over its last three matches, New Mexico State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Flames offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aggies have put up four such plays.
- The Liberty defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico State has given up seven such plays.
- The Liberty offense has created five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Mexico State has created seven such runs.
- The Flames defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up nine such runs.
- The Liberty defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this year. New Mexico State has recorded just two sacks.
