The No. 12 Liberty Flames (28-6) battle against the No. 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs (23-10) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at SAP Center at San Jose. The Flames opened as a 6.5-point underdog. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 133.5 points and action begins at 7:27 p.m. ET on Friday, March 22, 2019.
Liberty Flames vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs ATS Odds
In their last matchup, the Bulldogs lost to the eighth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers, 83-76, while the Flames defeated the Lipscomb Bisons, 74-68.
Liberty dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.190 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 11.2 (better than their season average of 15.3). Lipscomb recorded marks of 0.143 and 14.1, respectively, for those same stats. Mississippi State, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.177 vs. 0.152). Mississippi State rallied around Reggie Perry, who contributed 15 points and 12 rebounds. Caleb Homesley, meanwhile had a good game for Liberty, recording 11 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.
Of the Flames’ 31 games that accepted bets, 17 have finished under the total. Liberty comes into the game with records of 28-6 straight up (SU) and 18-12-1 against the spread (ATS).
Coinciding with Liberty, Bulldogs games have finished under the O/U total 51.5 percent of the time. Moreover, Mississippi State owns records of 23-10 SU and 15-15-3 ATS.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Mississippi State currently ranks 33rd in offensive efficiency and Liberty is 11th in defensive efficiency.
Liberty Flames vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Liberty, ATS Winner – Liberty, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Mississippi State ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.0) while Liberty ranks 187th (2.7).
- The Flames rank 10th in assists allowed per game (10.0) while the Bulldogs rank 113th (12.5).
- Liberty ranks 48th in three pointers allowed per game (19.9) while Mississippi State ranks 84th (20.7).
- The Bulldogs rank 136th in rebounds per game (35.8) while the Flames rank 265th (32.8).
- Mississippi State ranks 21st in steals per game (8.1) while Liberty ranks 130th (6.4).
Bettings Trends:
- During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 75.4 points per game (1.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.8 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
- The Flames’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.2, down from 13.2 for the season.
