Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders – Week 13 Betting Free Pick

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The Kansas City Chiefs (+15) are making a trip west to face their AFC West foe Oakland Raiders at Oakland Coliseum. This late afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 15 points to Oakland. If the Chiefs stumble early on it will result in a decent betting scenario in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 56 points.

The profitable Chiefs are 8-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 6.9 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-5.

The Raiders have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this year, losing 6.5 units. The team is 3-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6.

The Chiefs have gone 9-2 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AFC West opponents. The Raiders are 2-9 SU overall and 0-3 SU versus divisional foes.

The Chiefs are hoping to get back in stride after a narrow 54-51 defeat to the Rams on November 19 in which Patrick Mahomes completed 33-of-46 passes for 478 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Kareem Hunt (70 yards on 14 rush attempts) led the running attack in the loss. Tyreek Hill (10 receptions, 215 yards, two TDs) and Travis Kelce (10 catches, 127 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

Back in Week 12, Baltimore knocked off this Oakland crew by a score of 34-17. The Raiders defense allowed the Ravens to eat up the clock by running for 242 yards on 43 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Gus Edwards put up a productive outing in the win for Baltimore, recording 118 rushing yards on 23 attempts. For Oakland, Derek Carr completed 16-of-34 passes for 194 yards and one touchdown. Doug Martin logged an outstanding statline in the loss. Along with 51 yards on 11 rush attempts (and one TD), Martin also reeled in three catches for 21 yards.

When looking at offensive play-calling, each team has a remarkably similar (59-41 pass-to-run ratio on the season. Having said that, the Chiefs have run for 115.8 yards/game (including 99.0 per game against West opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Raiders haven’t been quite as productive. They’re averaging 99.4 rush yards per game (82.3 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Chiefs might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 37 sacks while the D-line registered 31 sacks. The Raiders offensive line has allowed 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 31 occasions.

The Chiefs offensive scheme has averaged 329.8 yards through the air overall (287.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 37 passing scores so far. The Raiders have produced 257.7 pass yards per game (266 against AFC competition) and have 13 total pass TDs.

Kansas City has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 117.5 yards and pass for 320.0 yards per game. The Oakland defense has allowed 244.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 151.4 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.30 to opponents, while the Raiders have given up an ugly 8.58 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Mahomes is already up to 3,379 yards this season, and has completed 67 percent of his 363 attempts with 35 scores through the air and only 10 interceptions. Mahomes has a pristine 9.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.35 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Kansas City in this one. Tyreek Hill (989 receiving yards, nine receiving touchdowns on the year), Kareem Hunt (753 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 353 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and Travis Kelce (868 receiving yards, seven TDs) have all played big roles of late.

In the host locker room, Derek Carr has completed 244-of-353 passes for 2,635 yards, 11 TDs and eight INTs. Carr’s ANY/A sits at 6.03 for the season and 5.76 across his last two games.

We’re expecting the Raiders to control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Seth Roberts (281 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has contributed lately, but Doug Martin (332 rush yards, one rush TD) and Jalen Richard (58 rush yards, 415 receiving yards) have been significant factors in the Raiders’ recent offensive gameplans.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: , ATS Winner: Raiders, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Oakland offense has lost six fumbles this season while Kansas City has lost three.
  • The Kansas City defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 36 times this year. Oakland has recorded just 10 sacks.
  • Kansas City, as a team, has produced 5.3 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.0 over its last two.
  • Oakland has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.2 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Oakland is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Kansas City’s previous game going into it was 63.5. The over cashed in the team’s 54-51 defeat to the Rams.
  • Over its last three contests, Kansas City is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Oakland’s previous game going into it was 41.5. The over cashed in the 34-17 loss to Baltimore.