Offense meets defense when the Iowa Hawkeyes (12-15, 3-11 Big 10) visit Michigan to take on the No. 22 Wolverines (20-7, 9-5 Big 10). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 148.5 points with Michigan set as a 12-point favorite. Action begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 14, 2018.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines ATS Preview
The Hawkeyes got blown out by the No. 14 Ohio State Buckeyes in their last matchup, 82-64. Jack Nunge had a solid performance for Iowa, leading the team in scoring with 18 points on 6-for-12 shooting. Ohio State’s 0.273 free throw rate was their largest strength over Iowa, who had a mark of 0.136. The Buckeyes mark was above their season average of 0.245, while the Hawkeyes was below their season average of 0.243.
In the Wolverines last game, they topped the Wisconsin Badgers, 83-72. With 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting, Moritz Wagner was Michigan’s high scorer. Michigan played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.360 (above their season average of 0.174) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.0 (above their season average of 26.6). For those same stats, Wisconsin put up marks of 0.200 and 19.4, respectively.
The productive offense of Michigan (39th in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 113.4) will clash against the bottom-tier defense of Iowa (309th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 110.0). The Wolverines should have the edge on that end of the court. Moreover, the Hawkeyes rank 49th in offensive rebounding percentage (33.8 percent), while the Wolverines rank 18th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.4 percent).
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Games including Iowa have gone over 65.2 percent of the time, while Michigan games have gone under 57.7 percent of the time. The Wolverines hold a significant advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 20-7 SU and 15-11 ATS, while the Hawkeyes are 12-15 SU and 9-12-2 ATS.
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman has been solid over the last five games for Michigan, averaging 14.2 points per game.
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 143 points in that game, which was just over the projected point total of 142.5. The Wolverines won 75-68, covering as 2.5-point favorites. Michigan had a better turnover percentage (14.0 vs. 17.9). Iowa, on the other hand, did an excellent job of making free throws (12-17; 70.6 percent). In the loss, Tyler Cook led all scorers on the team with 28 points.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines Odds Prediction
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Michigan, ATS Winner – Iowa, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Wolverines rank seventh in three pointers allowed per game (16.1) while the Hawkeyes rank 160th (22.2).
- Iowa ranks 43rd in blocks per game (4.4) while Michigan ranks 126th (3.1).
- On the road, Iowa is 4-9-1 ATS with 9 overs and 5 unders.
- Michigan is 7-6 ATS at home with 9 unders and 4 overs.
- Michigan ranks 18th in assists allowed per game (10.4) while Iowa ranks 241st (15.9).
- The Hawkeyes rank 63rd in rebounds per game (38.0) while the Wolverines rank 255th (33.1).
- Michigan ranks fifth in steals allowed per game (4.2) while Iowa ranks 163rd (6.8).
Betting Trends:
- Michigan is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Iowa is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Wolverines average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 10.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Hawkeyes have scored an average of 78.6 points per game (1.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 87.6 points per game (9.1 above their season average).
