Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Week 13 Free Betting Pick

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The Jaguars (+3) are gearing up to welcome the Indianapolis Colts (-3) to EverBank Field. CBS is scheduled to televise the action and kickoff for this AFC South game is pegged for 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a live dog and is currently getting 3 points in this AFC game. The Colts are also receiving -150 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +130. If one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages it will create a nice live betting scenario. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.

The Colts have gained 1.8 units so far in 2018 and are 5-5-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.

The Jaguars have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 10.3 units. The team is 3-6-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6.

The Colts have gone 6-5 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 3-8 SU overall and 0-3 SU against divisional foes.

Jacksonville enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Indianapolis has lost zero straight. The Colts are coming off a 27-24 victory over Miami in Week 12. The passing game wasn’t great as Andrew Luck completed 30 passes on 37 attempts for 343 yards, three scores and two interceptions. Marlon Mack (85 rushing yards on 15 attempts) led the ground attack while T.Y. Hilton (seven receptions, 125 yards) and Eric Ebron (five catches, 45 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 12, Buffalo got the victory against this Jacksonville team by a score of 24-21. The Jags defense allowed the Bills to kill the clock by rushing for 167 yards on 35 attempts, including two rush TDs. Josh Allen had a good showing in the win, posting 99 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts for Buffalo. For Jacksonville, Blake Bortles completed 12-of-23 passes for 127 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Leonard Fournette (95 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) and Carlos Hyde (33 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game while Dede Westbrook (three receptions, 44 yards, one TD) and Fournette (three catches, 13 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Indianapolis has run the ball on 38.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Jacksonville has an overall rush percentage of 42.4 percent. The Colts have run for 112.9 yards/game (including 74.7 per game versus South opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Jags are putting up 114.2 rushing yards per game (82.7 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.

It seems like the Colts should hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their backfield has generated 4.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Jaguars have ran for 4.3 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.

The Colts offensive scheme has averaged 283.1 yards in the air overall (348.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 32 passing TDs so far. The Jags have put up 248.4 pass yards per outing (232 in the AFC) and have 14 total pass scores.

Indianapolis has allowed opponents to run for an average of 106.4 yards and throw for 266.9 yards per game. The Jacksonville D has given up 219.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 6.55 to opposing QBs, while the Jags are allowing an ANY/A of 6.08.

Offensively, Luck has put up 2,815 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 276-of-408 attempts with 29 scores through the air and 11 interceptions. He’s got a 6.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.85 over the past two games.

We expect the Colts to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to wideout T.Y. Hilton (555 receiving yards and four touchdowns), Marlon Mack (495 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Nyheim Hines (269 rush yards, one rush TD, 228 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have delivered in the offensive game scripts for Indianapolis.

On the other sideline, Blake Bortles has managed to complete 213-of-351 passes for 2,468 yards, 13 TDs and 10 INTs. Bortles’ ANY/A sits at 5.83 for the year and 2.02 over his past two games.

The Jags should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Along with Dede Westbrook (509 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Leonard Fournette (219 rush yards, three rush TDs, 88 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Carlos Hyde (431 rush yards, five rush TDs) have gotten a multitude of action recently.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Colts, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Jacksonville offense has lost 11 fumbles this season while Indianapolis has let six get away.
  • The Indianapolis defense has 27 sacks on the year while Jacksonville has just 21.
  • Indianapolis, as a team, has rushed for 3.9 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Jacksonville has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
  • In its last three matches, Jacksonville is 0-1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Indianapolis’ previous game was set at 52.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-24 victory over Miami.
  • In its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Jacksonville’s last matchup was set at 36.5. The over cashed in the 24-21 defeat to Buffalo.
  • Jacksonville has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 19-point triumph over New York on September 30th accounting for the only win over that span.