Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics ATS Prediction 03/29/19

Posts AdminArticles, Basketball, NBA

The NBA’s top scoring defense will be 6.5-point underdogs on the road at TD Garden, when the Indiana Pacers (45-30) challenge the Boston Celtics (44-31). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 214.5 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, March 29, 2019.

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics ATS Odds

The Celtics defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing, 116-106, covering as 5.5-point favorites. The Pacers, meanwhile, were beat by the Oklahoma City Thunder, 107-99, and were not able to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The Boston game went 6 points over the projected point total of 216, while the Indiana game finished 11 points under the projected point total of 217.

Boston played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 21.8) and a turnover percentage of 9.1 (better than their season average of 11.2). For those same stats, Cleveland was 7.9 and 13.3, respectively. Indiana, meanwhile, made 13 of their 31 three pointers (41.9 percent). Marcus Smart had a good performance for Boston with 21 points and six rebounds. Indiana, meanwhile, received a boost from Domantas Sabonis, who contributed 18 points and 10 rebounds.

The Celtics won the most recent matchup 135-108 to even the season series at one. Sabonis had a standout performance with 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Indiana. The Celtics had a rate of 0.648 while the Pacers posted a mark of 0.478. Boston covered as an 8-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 243 points, which was well over the projected point total of 216.5.

Of the Pacers’ 75 games, 45 have finished under the total. Indiana holds records of 45-30 straight up (SU) and 36-38-1 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Indiana, Celtics games have a tendency to go over the total (56.0 percent). Moreover, Boston owns records of 44-31 SU and 35-38-2 ATS.

Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a key role in this matchup. Boston commits the fourth-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while the pesky defense of Indiana forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.1 percent).

Pacers at Celtics Betting Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers score the third-most points off turnovers per game (19.0) while the Celtics rank fourth (18.4).
  • Boston ranks sixth in three pointers attempted per game (34.9) while Indiana ranks 29th (25.4).
  • The Celtics rank second in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Pacers rank 12th (7.5).
  • Boston puts up 16.0 fast-break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Indiana ranks 17th in fast-break points allowed per game (13.8).
  • Indiana allows the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game (44.7) while Boston ranks fifth (45.8).
  • The Pacers rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Celtics rank 22nd (45.9).
  • The Celtics average 26.4 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Pacers rank 13th in assists allowed per game (24.3).
  • Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Indiana ranks 19th (5.2).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Boston is 15-4 and Indiana is 24-3.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Pacers are 40-15 and the Celtics are 44-23.
  • Indiana is 14-23-1 ATS on the road, while Boston is 20-18 ATS at home.
  • The Pacers have 20 unders and 18 overs in 38 road games.
  • The Celtics have 22 overs and 16 unders in 38 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Celtics are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Pacers are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Indiana has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 109.8 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (7.4 above their season average).
  • The Pacers have been outscored by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Indiana has defeated opponents by an average of 3.8 points.