MVC foes will clash when the Missouri State Bears (15-8, 5-5 MVC) square off against the Illinois State Redbirds (11-11, 5-5 MVC) at JQH Arena. Missouri State opened as an 8-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 138 points. Action begins at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 30, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN 3.
Illinois State Redbirds at Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
In the Redbirds last game, they were victorious over the Valparaiso Crusaders, 76-65. Phil Fayne was the games leading scorer with 24 points on 11-for-12 shooting. Illinois State played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 36.4 (above their season average of 25.0) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.517 (above their season average of 0.509). Valparaiso had marks of 20.0 and 0.402, respectively, for those same stats.
The Bears are trying to rebound after their 79-77 loss to the Southern Illinois Salukis in their last game. Alize Johnson was the top scorer from either team with 29 points on 10-for-19 shooting. Southern Illinois had an effective field goal percentage of 0.723 (above their season average of 0.521). Missouri State, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (11.6 vs. 15.5).
The offensive glass should be a major advantage for Missouri State in this battle. The Bears rank 45th in offensive rebounding percentage (34.3 percent), while Illinois State ranks 289th in defensive rebounding percentage (68.1 percent). Furthermore, the Redbirds rank 259th in offensive efficiency (101.8), while the Bears rank 50th in defensive efficiency (96.9).
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Illinois State games have finished over 63.2 percent of the time, while 65.0 percent of games featuring Missouri State have gone under. The Bears hold the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (15-8 vs. 11-11), but the Redbirds have the superior against the spread (ATS) record (9-10 vs. 8-12).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 140 points, just over the projected point total of 139. The Redbirds won 72-68, covering as 4-point underdogs. Illinois State had a much better turnover percentage (8.1 vs. 23.2). Missouri State, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.6 vs. 22.9). Milik Yarbrough had a standout performance in the victory, producing 23 points.
Illinois State Redbirds at Missouri State Bears Free Prediction
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Missouri State, ATS Winner – Illinois State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bears rank 48th in steals allowed per game (5.4) while the Redbirds rank 88th (6.0).
- Missouri State averages 4.2 blocks per game, which ranks 57th in the NCAA. Illinois State ranks 86th in blocks allowed per game (3.3).
- On the road, Illinois State is 5-6 ATS with 9 overs and 2 unders.
- At home, Missouri State is 3-5 ATS with 5 unders and 3 overs.
- Missouri State averages 39.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 34th in the nation. Illinois State ranks 262nd in rebounds allowed per game (39.2).
- The Bears rank 18th in assists allowed per game (10.4) while the Redbirds rank 185th (14.5).
- Illinois State ranks 37th in three pointers attempted per game (26.2) while Missouri State ranks 200th (20.4).
Betting Trends:
- Missouri State is 0-5 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Illinois State is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Bears have been outscored by an average of 3.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Missouri State has defeated opponents by an average of 6.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Redbirds have scored an average of 68.4 points per game (3.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 72.6 points per game (2.3 below their season average).
