The Illinois State Redbirds (7-14, 2-7 MVC) head to Athletics-Recreation Center to take on the Valparaiso Crusaders (11-11, 4-5 MVC). The Redbirds look to put an end to a nine-game road losing streak. Action starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 1, 2020.
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Valparaiso Crusaders ATS Odds
In their last outing, the Crusaders fell to the Bradley Braves, 80-69, while the Redbirds were victorious over the Evansville Aces, 77-66.
Illinois State dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 8.4 (better than their season average of 18.4) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.6 (below their season average of 26.8). Evansville was 18.7 and 10.7, respectively, for those same stats. Valparaiso, on the other hand, forced Bradley into a turnover percentage of 22.5 (above their season average of 15.2). Javon Freeman-Liberty had a solid performance for Valparaiso, finishing with 21 points and seven rebounds. Zach Copeland played a key role for Illinois State with 11 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.
The Crusaders dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the last game, Valparaiso won 69-53. The Crusaders’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Redbirds. Valparaiso had a rate of 20.0, while Illinois State posted a mark of 11.1. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
This game should be a battle of contrasting styles. Valparaiso prefers to play quickly (75th in possessions per game), while Illinois State is slower-paced (266th in possessions per game). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Redbirds, which ranks 256th in ball security (turnover percentage of 20.4 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Crusaders, which forces the 53rd-most turnovers in the NCAA (22.3 percent).
Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Valparaiso, ATS Winner – Illinois State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Valparaiso ranks 33rd in steals per game (8.3) while Illinois State ranks 180th (5.6).
- The Redbirds are 37th in the NCAA with 2.6 blocks allowed per game while the Crusaders are 45th with 2.7 blocks allowed per game.
- The Crusaders rank 38th in assists per game (15.3) while the Redbirds rank 182nd (12.5).
- Valparaiso ranks 39th in three pointers allowed per game (18.9) while Illinois State ranks 136th (21.8).
Bettings Trends:
- During their last five games, the Crusaders have scored an average of 72.0 points per game (1.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 75.4 points per game (2.6 above their season average).
- The Redbirds’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 3.4 for the season.
