The Illinois Fighting Illini (13-15, 3-12 Big 10) will travel to Jack Breslin Student Events Center to clash against the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (26-3, 14-2 Big 10) in their home finale. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 147.5 points with Michigan State set as a 17-point favorite. Action begins at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 20, 2018.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans ATS Preview
The last time the Fighting Illini played, they defeated the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 72-66. Leron Black was the top scorer from either team with 28 points on 11-for-18 shooting. The Fighting Illini held the Cornhuskers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.6 (below their season average of 29.7) and had a turnover percentage of 10.7 (better than their season average of 17.0).
The Spartans hope to maintain momentum after beating the Northwestern Wildcats in their last game, 65-60. Michigan State was lifted by Cassius Winston, who led the team in scoring with 17 points on 5-for-8 shooting. Michigan State dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.370 (above their season average of 0.273) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.8 (below their season average of 36.5). For those same stats, Northwestern had marks of 0.161 and 22.9, respectively.
When looking at effective field goal percentage, Michigan State should have a considerable advantage. The elite Spartans offense ranks sixth in the NCAA in that metric at 0.589, while the porous Illinois defense is ranked 272nd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.523).
Of Illinois’ 24 games that accepted bets, 14 have finished under the projected point total, while 13 of Michigan State’s 27 games have finished over the projected point total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Spartans have a significant advantage. They are 26-3 SU and 14-14-1 ATS, while the Fighting Illini are 13-15 SU and 11-13 ATS.
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to put up 161 points in that game, which was over the projected point total of 147.5. The Spartans won 87-74, covering as 12-point favorites. The Spartans dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.523 and an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 60.0. The Fighting Illini were 0.154 and 24.3, respectively, for those same stats. Jaren Jackson Jr. recorded a double-double with 21 points and 11 rebounds.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Illinois, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Spartans rank first in assists per game (20.3) while the Fighting Illini rank 162nd (13.4).
- Illinois ranks 16th in three pointers allowed per game (18.0) while Michigan State ranks 154th (22.2).
- On the road, Illinois is 5-6 ATS with 8 unders and 3 overs.
- At home, Michigan State is 9-7 ATS with 9 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.
- Michigan State ranks first in blocks per game (7.4) while Illinois ranks 216th (2.1).
- The Spartans rank sixth in rebounds per game (41.2) while the Fighting Illini rank 202nd (34.0).
- Illinois ranks 46th in steals per game (7.4) while Michigan State ranks 236th (4.2).
Betting Trends:
- Michigan State is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Spartans average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.8, down from 17.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Fighting Illini have scored an average of 65.6 points per game (10.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 74.2 points per game (1.7 above their season average).
