Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors Betting Prediction

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The Houston Rockets (3-2) will look to advance to the NBA Finals when they travel to ORACLE Arena to go head-to-head against the Golden State Warriors (2-3) in game six of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets opened as 11-point underdogs. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213.5 points and it will air on TNT at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 26, 2018.

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors ATS Odds

In game five, Paul led the Rockets to a 98-94 win. He produced 20 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Houston covered as a 1-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 192 points, which was well under the projected point total of 219.5. The Rockets turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Warriors. Houston had a rate of 9.8, while Golden State posted a mark of 16.3.

This showdown pits one of the leagues top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Golden State ranks second in offensive efficiency and Houston is fifth in defensive efficiency. Ball security should be an advantage for the Rockets. They rank 4th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent). Conversely, the Warriors force the seventh-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents turnover percentage of 13.1 percent).

Rockets games have typically gone under the projected point total (56.7 percent). Houston heads into the contest with records of 76-21 straight up (SU) and 50-45-2 against the spread (ATS).

Coinciding with Houston, just over half of Warriors games have finished under the O/U total. Golden State is 68-29 SU, but they are just 40-54-3 ATS.

The Warriors are 14-10 with 14 unders, nine overs and one push in the playoffs, while the Rockets are 1-4 ATS with four unders and one over,

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors Betting Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.0).
  • Golden State ranks first in assists per game (28.7) while Houston ranks 28th (21.2).
  • The Rockets rank 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Warriors rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.1).
  • Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (18.8) while Houston ranks 17th (11.1).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.1) while Houston ranks 12th (4.9).
  • The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
  • The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (41.9) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.0).
  • Houston ranks seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.3).
  • Houston is 38-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Golden State is 20-7.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Rockets are 71-15 and the Warriors are 64-17.
  • Houston is 28-18-1 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 19-28-2 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 25 of the Warriors 49 home games, while 29 of the Rockets 47 road games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • In their last five games, Houston and Golden State have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 2-3.
  • The Rockets have been outscored by an average of 5.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 7.9 points.
  • During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (4.4 below their season average).