The Denver Nuggets (33-26) will attempt to snap the 11-game winning streak of Houston when they welcome the Rockets (45-13) to Pepsi Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 228 points with Houston set as a 4.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 25, 2018, and it can be seen on ATTSN Southwest.
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
,In the Rockets last matchup, they dismantled the Minnesota Timberwolves, 120-102. With 25 points and 11 rebounds, Houston’s Clint Capela had a good game. Houston dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.317 (above their season average of 0.239) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.573 (above their season average of 0.555). Minnesota recorded marks of 0.128 and 0.479, respectively, for those same stats.
The Nuggets hope to maintain momentum after barely hanging on to beat the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, 122-119. Denver was lifted by Nikola Jokic, who notched his fifth triple-double of the season. He took over, accumulating 28 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. The Nuggets, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.1, had a fantastic mark of 40.0 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.557 (above their season average of 0.531).
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams clash. The Nuggets currently rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.3 percent), while Houston ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.9 percent). Furthermore, the Rockets second-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 114.1) will try to exploit the Nuggets 23rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 108.5).
Of Houston’s 58 games, 30 have finished under the projected point total, while 31 of Denver’s 59 games have finished under the O/U total. The Rockets have the superior straight up (SU) record (45-13 vs. 33-26) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (29-28-1 vs. 28-28-3).
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Rockets, it’s been Capela, who has averaged 15.8 points, 13.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, while the Nuggets have received solid contributions from Jokic (20.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, 9.6 assists and 1.2 steals).
These two teams have already met twice this season, with the Rockets winning both. In the most recent game, Capela put up 23 points and 25 rebounds and the Rockets beat the Nuggets 130-104, covering as 8-point favorites. The two teams combined for 234 points, which was 11 points above the projected point total of 223 points. The Rockets played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 and a superb free throw rate of 0.291. For those same stats, the Nuggets recorded marks of 15.9 and 0.193, respectively.
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
,NBA Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Rockets average 8.6 steals per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 21st in steals allowed per game (8.1).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.7) while Denver ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (28.4).
- Denver ranks fourth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Houston ranks 21st (11.6).
- On the road, Houston is 17-11 ATS with 16 unders, 11 overs and 1 push.
- Denver is 17-13-1 ATS at home with 17 unders and 14 overs.
- When allowing under 100 points, Houston is 20-2 and Denver is 13-2.
- The Nuggets are 27-17 when they score more than 100 points, while the Rockets are 44-10.
- The Nuggets average 13.7 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Rockets rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.2).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (48.8) while Houston ranks 27th (40.9).
- The Rockets average 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while the Rockets rank second (41.4).
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (24.5) while Houston ranks 23rd (21.9).
Betting Trends:
- Denver is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.2, up from 1.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 116.0 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (4.9 below their season average).
