Houston Rockets at Miami Heat Free Prediction 11/03/19

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The Houston Rockets (3-2) will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to square off with the Miami Heat (4-1). The game will air on ATTSN Southwest at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 3, 2019.

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Heat beat the Atlanta Hawks in their last contest, 106-97, covering as 7-point favorites. The Rockets, on the other hand, were beat by the Brooklyn Nets, 123-116, and were unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The Miami game went 12.5 points under the projected point total of 215.5, while the Houston game went 6 points under the projected point total of 245.

The Heat held the Hawks to an effective field goal percentage of 0.449 (below their season average of 0.528) and had a turnover percentage of 12.3 (better than their season average of 17.2). Houston, meanwhile, forced Brooklyn into a turnover percentage of 17.0 (above the 12.4 mark opponents have averaged against Houston this season). Miami’s Jimmy Butler played well, recording five points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook was a key piece for Houston with 27 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.

This was a highly competitive series last year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the most recent game, the Rockets won 121-118. Houston made good use of their 28 trips to the free throw line, making 26 of them (92.9 percent). Miami, meanwhile, was 19-24 (79.2 percent).

Of the Rockets’ five games, three have finished over the total. Houston is 3-2 straight up (SU), but they are just 0-5 against the spread (ATS).

Games involving the Heat also have typically gone over the total (60.0 percent). Moreover, Miami is 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS.

Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Miami ranks 23rd in possessions per game (100.9) and Houston is 22nd (101.0) dating back to the 2018-19 season. Moreover, the sharp-shooting offense of the Rockets ranks third in effective field goal percentage (0.540), while the Heat have been fourth-best in the league at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.508).

Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat Free Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Heat rank 16th in assists per game (24.3) while the Rockets rank 28th (21.1).
  • Miami ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.7) while Houston ranks 25th (51.0).
  • The Rockets average 18.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Heat rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
  • Miami ranks fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while Houston ranks 18th (4.9).
  • Houston ranks fourth in steals per game (8.5) while Miami ranks 16th in steals allowed per game (7.6).
  • The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (45.2) while the Heat rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (33.6).
  • The Rockets rank 16th in fast break points per game (12.2) while the Heat rank 29th (9.9).
  • Miami ranks seventh in second chance points per game (14.1) while Houston ranks 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
  • Miami ranks ninth in rebounds per game (46.4) while Houston ranks 28th (42.3).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 24-3 and Houston is 18-2.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Rockets are 59-25 and the Heat are 39-24.