The Denver Nuggets (9-3), 2-point favorites, will try to slow down the Houston Rockets (11-3) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 20, 2019.
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Both teams comfortably covered as favorites in their last matchup. The Nuggets (6.5-point favorites) defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 131-114, while the Rockets (7.5-point favorites) beat the Portland Trail Blazers 132-108. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Denver game finished 30 points over the projected point total of 215, while the Houston game finished 8.5 points over the projected point total of 231.5.
Houston dominated every stat category in the game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 34.7 (above their season average of 21.8) and a free throw rate of 0.210 (below their season average of 0.251). For those same stats, Portland was 22.6 and 0.177, respectively. Meanwhile, Denver’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Memphis. The Nuggets had a rate of 10.8 (better than their season average of 11.2), while the Grizzlies posted a mark of 14.5. Jamal Murray played a key role for Denver with 39 points and eight assists. Houston, meanwhile, was lifted by Russell Westbrook, who recorded his second triple-double this year. He dominated, registering 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists.
The Rockets held the advantage in this series last year, emerging victorious in three out of four games. In the last contest, Houston won 112-85. The Rockets’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Nuggets. Houston had a rate of 26.2, while Denver posted a mark of 16.7. This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.
Rockets games tend to go under the total (64.3 percent). Houston comes into the contest with records of 11-3 straight up (SU) and 8-6 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Houston, games including the Nuggets also have typically finished under the projected point total (75.0 percent). Denver has an outstanding 9-3 SU record, but they are just 4-6-2 ATS.
There’s a decent chance that Houston struggles to create turnovers. Denver ranks second in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Houston forces the 18th-most turnovers (14.3 percent). It will also be a matchup of contrasting tempos as the fast-breaking Rockets rank third in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 21st.
Rockets vs. Nuggets Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Rockets average 14.9 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 16th in fast break points allowed per game (13.6).
- Houston ranks third in second chance points per game (15.6) while Denver ranks 22nd (12.3).
- The Nuggets rank eighth in assists per game (25.8) while the Rockets rank 25th (21.1).
- Houston averages 47.4 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Denver ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.9).
- Houston averages 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Denver ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
- The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (46.4) while the Nuggets rank 19th (30.0).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Rockets rank 15th (8.0).
- Denver ranks 17th in points in the paint per game (46.7) while Houston ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (50.6).
- Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.1) while Houston ranks 19th (18.1).
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Denver is 6-0 and Houston is 2-0.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Rockets are 11-3 and the Nuggets are 8-3.
- Denver is 1-4-1 ATS at home, while Houston is 4-3 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 5 of the Nuggets’ 6 home games, while 6 of the Rockets’ 7 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Rockets are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-3-1.
- In their last five games, Houston has 4 unders and 1 over, while Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.6, up from 5.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (2.5 above their season average).
