The Houston Rockets (40-25) and the Dallas Mavericks (27-38) go head-to-head at American Airlines Center. The Rockets are an 8-point favorite and look to prolong their seven-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points and it can be seen on ATTSN Southwest at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 10, 2019.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
In their last contest, the Rockets (8-point favorites) covered in a 107-91 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Mavericks were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 111-106, but did cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The Houston game went 32 points under the projected point total of 230, while the Dallas game finished 3 points over the projected point total of 214.
Houston’s 0.571 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Philadelphia, who had a rate of 0.384. The Rockets’ mark was above their season average of 0.537, while the 76ers’ was below their season average of 0.537. Dallas, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (12.7 vs. 12.9). Luka Doncic played well for Dallas with 24 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Meanwhile, Houston rallied around James Harden, who recorded 31 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
The Mavericks lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined for 224 points in their most recent game, which was just over the projected point total of 223.5. Dallas lost 120-104, covering as an 11-point underdog. Houston out-rebounded Dallas. The Rockets had nine offensive rebounds and 38 total rebounds, while the Mavericks had three and 33, respectively. Harden was the game’s leading scorer with 31 points.
Of the Rockets’ 65 games, 34 have finished over the total. Houston comes into the game with records of 40-25 straight up (SU) and 30-33-2 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Houston, just over half of Mavericks games have finished under the total. Further, Dallas is 27-38 SU and 37-28 ATS.
The physical Dallas offense might be living from the charity stripe in this matchup. The Mavericks currently rank fourth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.221, while Houston is among the NBA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 26th-ranked FTA rate of 0.219).
Rockets vs. Mavericks Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 18th in second chance points per game (13.0) while the Rockets rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
- Houston ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (18.3) while Dallas ranks 26th (15.0).
- The Mavericks rank 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.8) while the Rockets rank 29th (52.4).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.6) while Dallas ranks 15th in three pointers allowed per game (32.1).
- Dallas ranks 18th in rebounds per game (45.0) while Houston ranks 28th (41.5).
- The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.6) while the Mavericks rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
- The Rockets rank 13th in blocks per game (5.2) while the Mavericks rank 26th (4.3).
- Dallas is 25th in the league with 22.7 assists per game while Houston is 29th with 21.0 assists per game.
- Houston ranks 11th in fast break points allowed per game (13.1) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.6).
- Houston is 11-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 10-3.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 26-30 and the Rockets are 38-17.
- Houston is 13-19-1 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 21-11 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 19 of the Mavericks’ 32 home games, while 18 of the Rockets’ 33 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Houston and Dallas have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Rockets are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 113.6 points per game (0.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (6.3 below their season average).
- The Mavericks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 14.8, up from 1.7 for the season.
