A couple of schools that like to focus on their running games, Head Coach Dana Holgorsen and the Houston Cougars (+22) are set to pay a visit to their conference nemesis Connecticut Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. The afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ESPNU.
Betting Preview: Connecticut Huskies vs. Houston Cougars
Houston is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 22 points to Connecticut. If the Cougars get behind early it would produce a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 59 points.
The line has recently shifted down from 23 to where it is now (22). The game’s total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 59.
The Cougars have lost 0.5 units so far and are 3-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-3.
The Huskies are down 1.0 unit this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-4.
The Cougars have gone 2-4 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Huskies are 1-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Cougars will attempt to get back in stride after a 38-23 defeat to Cincinnati last week. Clayton Tune completed only nine-of-27 passes for 184 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Kyle Porter (107 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Marquez Stevenson (three receptions, 120 yards, one TD) and Tre’von Bradley (two catches, 52 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Tulane got the victory against this Connecticut crew by a score of 49-7. As a group, the Huskies collectively completed 19-of-31 passes for 134 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Mike Beaudry went 15-for-24 for 101 yards and one interception while Jack Zergiotis was four-of-seven for 33 yards and one touchdown. Kevin Mensah (41 yards on 15 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Thompkins (six receptions, 28 yards) and Jayce Medlock (three catches, 42 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Houston’s run the ball on 59.8 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 56.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Connecticut has an overall rush percentage of 54.9 percent, and has carried the ball 52.5 percent of the time against AAC opponents. The Cougars have run for 240.8 yards per game (including 247 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Huskies are totaling 104 rushing yards per game (109.7 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it appears the Cougars should own the edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 6.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 5.1 to opponents. The Huskies have registered 2.9 yards per carry and allowed 5.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Cougars offense has averaged 171 yards in the air overall (231.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Huskies have recorded 191.8 pass yards per contest (208 against AAC foes) and have five total pass scores.
Defensively, Houston has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 175 yards and pass for 304.8 yards per game. The Connecticut defense has given up 241.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 210.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Cougars have given up an ANY/A of 8.68 to opposing QBs, while the Huskies are yielding an ANY/A of 8.4.
Offensively, Tune is up to 184 passing yards this year. He’s completed 9-of-27 attempts with two scores through the air and three interceptions. He has a 2.93 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.42 over the last two outings.
For the home team, Mike Beaudry has completed 29-of-45 passes for 259 yards, zero TDs and two INTs. Beaudry’s ANY/A stands at a terrible 3.26 for the season and 4.47 over his last two games.
These two AAC foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2018.
Houston Cougars at Connecticut Huskies Free Pick
SU Winner: Connecticut, ATS Winner: Connecticut, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- As a team, Houston has rushed for 6.3 yards per attempt over its past three games and 6.1 over its last two.
- Connecticut has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 2.8 over its past two.
- The Connecticut offense has lost five fumbles this season while Houston has lost four.
- The Cougars offense has registered three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Huskies have accounted for one such play.
- The Houston defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Connecticut has given up three such plays.
- The Houston offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Connecticut has created two such runs.
- The Cougars defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Huskies have given up nine such runs.
- Each team defense has produced 12 sacks this season.
