It will be a contest between two exceptional defenses when the South Florida Bulls (11-12, 4-6 AAC), 6-point underdogs, square off with the 20th-ranked Houston Cougars (19-5, 9-2 AAC) at Yuengling Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 125.5 points and it will air on ESPNU at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12, 2020.
Houston Cougars at South Florida Bulls ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last contest. The Bulls (9-point underdogs) defeated the Memphis Tigers 75-73, while the Cougars (5-point favorite) beat the Wichita State Shockers 76-43. The South Florida game went 20.5 points over the projected point total of 127.5, while the Houston game finished 15 points under the projected point total of 134.
Houston dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb effective field goal percentage of 0.560 (above their season average of 0.489) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 (below their season average of 38.4). For those same stats, Wichita State put up marks of 0.283 and 23.8, respectively. The Bulls, on the other hand, had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 39.5 (above their season average of 32.5) and had a free throw rate of 0.293 (above their season average of 0.237). South Florida received a boost from Justin Brown, who put up 14 points and 16 rebounds. Meanwhile, Quentin Grimes led the way for Houston, contributing 14 points, six rebounds and five assists.
In their first matchup this year, DeJon Jarreau led the Cougars to a 68-49 win. He was the game’s leading scorer with 12 points. Houston covered as a 14-point favorite and the two teams combined for 117 points, which was under the projected point total of 127. The Cougars’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Bulls. Houston had a rate of 11.8, while South Florida posted a mark of 20.6.
A little over half of the Cougars’ games have finished under the total. Houston heads into the contest with records of 19-5 straight up (SU) and 15-9 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas tends to set the total high when the Bulls are involved, as 16 of their 24 games have finished under the total. Moreover, South Florida owns records of 11-12 SU and 13-10 ATS.
South Florida might struggle to put up points as they go head-to-head against one of the NCAA’s best defenses. Houston currently ranks 47th in defensive efficiency, while the Bulls rank 311th in offensive efficiency. Additionally, the Cougars, who rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (38.4 percent), will go head-to-head against the Bulls, who rank 43rd in defensive rebounding percentage (75.9 percent).
Houston Cougars at South Florida Bulls ATS Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Houston, ATS Winner – South Florida, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Houston ranks fourth in rebounds per game (42.0) while South Florida ranks 217th (33.9).
- The Cougars rank 120th in assists per game (13.5) while the Bulls rank 257th (10.0).
- The Bulls rank 41st in steals per game (8.0) while the Cougars rank 226th (5.0).
- Houston ranks 14th in blocks per game (5.3) while South Florida ranks 196th (2.2).
- South Florida is 7-5 ATS at home, while Houston is 7-4 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 9 of the Bulls’ 12 home games, while 6 of the Cougars’ 11 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Houston and South Florida are both 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Cougars’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 14.6, up from 10.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 59.4 points per game (3.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 59.4 points per game (2.3 below their season average).
