Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Free Pick

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The Minnesota Twins are playing host to the Houston Astros at Target Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will be televising this AL showdown.

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Minnesota (+100) is the home-team underdog against Houston (-110) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this day game at 8.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total now stand at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds coming in at Astros -1.5 runs (+135) and Twins +1.5 runs (-155).

The Twins are 18-10 straight up (SU) and 14-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 8.2 units for moneyline bettors and 0.2 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Astros are 18-13 SU and have gone 13-17 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 1.1 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 4.4 units ATS. Houston is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Twins games have an over/under record of 15-12 so far in 2019. Houston has been a decent under bet with a total record of 12-18.

Brad Peacock will get the nod for the Stros. The right-handed Peacock is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Minnesota this year.

The Twins are handing the ball to righty Jose Berrios (4-1, 2.97 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and eight walks, along with a 0.97 WHIP. Berrios hasn’t faced the Astros yet this year and did not register a start against them in 2018.

As a unit, Minnesota’s pitchers have given up 4.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.00, a WHIP of 1.19 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 4.78 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 9.8 K/9.

Minnesota’s hitters have put up 5.3 runs per contest, including 4.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .196/.287/.439 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

Shortstop Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler have led the Twins’ hitters so far. Polanco is slashing .327/.393/.606 with five home runs, 11 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Kepler is hitting .277 with seven homers, 16 RBIs and 16 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Houston’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.68 K/9. The bullpen has logged a solid ERA of just 3.05, along with a K/9 of 9.44.

The Astros offense has slashed .268/.347/.466 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 4.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Outfielders Michael Brantley and George Springer have led Houston’s hitters. Brantley is slashing .331/.380/.517 with five home runs, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored, while Springer is hitting .275/.367/.558 with nine homers, 24 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

The Astros have lost 5.0 units and are 9-14 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 10 of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Twins have netted 9.2 units and are 14-12 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 12 that’ve gone under.

Astros vs. Twins Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Houston has logged 14 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Minnesota has 18 XBH over its last five.
  • The Astros have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Twins have hit 18 over their last 10.
  • The Astros have an OPS of .813 this season and an OPS of .789 against right-handed pitchers. The Twins’ OPS sits at .818 overall and .813 versus righties.
  • Houston has posted 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.4 over its last five.
  • The Twins have won five of their last six games SU.