Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Free Pick

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The Houston Astros will square off against their divisional rival Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. ATTSN Southwest will broadcast the matchup and the game gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Odds

Houston (-135) is the favorite over Seattle (+125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this day game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at +110 for betting the Astros -1.5 runs and -130 for the Mariners +1.5 runs.

The Astros have gone 76-50 SU this year and are 62-63 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.6 units for moneyline bettors and 7.4 units ATS. Houston has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Mariners, on the other hand, are 72-55 SU and 63-63 ATS. They’ve gained 14.0 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 4.5 units ATS. Seattle has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Mariners games have an over/under record of 62-62-2 in 2018. The Astros have been a decent under bet with a total record of 54-64-7.

Charlie Morton will get the nod for the visiting Astros. The right-handed Morton is 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 175 strikeouts. He’s 2-1 with 20 strikeouts and a 2.37 ERA against Seattle this year (three starts).

The Mariners are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Marco Gonzales (12-8, 3.91 ERA), who has 125 strikeouts and 28 walks to his name, as well as a 1.23 WHIP. Gonzales is 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 5.79 ERA in one start against Houston this year.

As a unit, Seattle’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 4.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 54 divisional games, Mariners starters have an ERA of 4.41 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.22.

Seattle’s offense is putting up 4.1 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .235/.301/.329 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Mariners’ hitters have been led by shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Mitch Haniger. Segura is slashing .316/.344/.437 with nine home runs, 57 RBIs, 78 runs and 17 stolen bases, while Haniger’s line is .277/.364/.468 with 19 homers, 79 RBIs and 65 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Houston’s pitching staff allowed 3.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.39 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.10, along with a K/9 of 10.82.

Astros hitters have slashed .254/.329/.428 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game this season, including 4.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman continue to lead Houston’s offense. Altuve is hitting .327/.391/.461 with nine home runs, 46 RBIs, 64 runs and 14 stolen bases. Bregman is hitting .280/.382/.517 with 24 homers, 77 RBIs and 81 runs scored.

The Astros have lost 10.2 units and are 22-26 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 21 of those games, compared to 25 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mariners have netted 18.6 units and are 42-42 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 45 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in only two of Seattle’s last seven games.
  • Seattle has recorded 21.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.2 over its last five.
  • The Astros have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.