The Harvard Crimson (9-4), 4-point underdogs, will travel to War Memorial Gymnasium to meet the San Francisco Dons (11-3). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 149.5 points and action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, December 30, 2019.
Harvard Crimson at San Francisco Dons ATS Odds
Both teams were victorious in their last game. The Dons (2-point favorites) edged the Fresno State Bulldogs 71-69, while the Crimson (19.5-point favorites) were victorious over the California Golden Bears 71-63. The San Francisco game went 6 points under the projected point total of 146, while the Harvard game finished 14 points under the projected point total of 148.
The Crimson had an absurd free throw rate of 0.585 (above their season average of 0.239) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.573 (above their season average of 0.511). Meanwhile, San Francisco’s 0.220 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Fresno State, who had a rate of 0.100. The Dons’ mark matched their season average, while the Bulldogs’ was below their season average of 0.215. Charles Minlend fueled San Francisco with 12 points and five rebounds. Harvard was lifted by Chris Lewis, who put up 19 points.
The Dons won the lone game between these two teams last year, 61-57. Getting to the charity stripe was one of San Francisco’s biggest advantages. They had 28 free throw attempts, while Harvard had just 12. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Crimson games, with 6 overs compared to 5 unders. Harvard heads into the contest with records of 9-4 straight up (SU) and 5-6 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas tends to place the total low when the Dons are involved, as nine of their 11 games have finished over the total. Further, San Francisco is 11-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS.
The physical Harvard offense seems poised to dominate from the free throw line. The Crimson currently rank 68th in the nation with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.258, while San Francisco is among the NCAA’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 242nd-ranked FTA rate of 0.235).
Harvard Crimson vs. San Francisco Dons Odds Pick
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – San Francisco, ATS Winner – San Francisco, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- San Francisco ranks 10th in three pointers attempted per game (29.4) while Harvard ranks 174th (21.2).
- The Dons rank 47th in rebounds allowed per game (31.9) while the Crimson rank 81st (33.3).
- San Francisco is 16th in the country with 9.4 assists allowed per game while Harvard is 41st with 10.6 assists allowed per game.
- The Crimson rank 10th in blocks per game (5.8) while the Dons rank 131st (2.6).
- San Francisco ranks 39th in steals allowed per game (5.5) while Harvard ranks 110th (6.6).
- Harvard is 2-5 ATS on the road, while San Francisco is 4-4 ATS at home.
- Of the Crimson’s 7 road games, they have 4 overs and 3 unders.
- In 8 home games, the Dons have 6 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
Bettings Trends:
- The Dons are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Crimson are 3-2.
- In their last five games, San Francisco has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push, while Harvard has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Dons have scored an average of 77.4 points per game (4.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.0 points per game (0.8 below their season average).
- The Crimson’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.0, down from 9.3 for the season.
